What is driving ADM's earnings decline in 2025?

The decline was driven mainly by lower crush margins in North and South America, weaker global trade flows and lower North American soybean exports, and weaker refining margins tied to soft food demand and deferred U.S. biofuel policy clarity. Lower Decatur-related insurance proceeds also reduced results compared with 2024.

What does ADM expect for 2026 earnings?

ADM guides to 2026 adjusted EPS of roughly $3.60 to $4.25. The low end assumes continued U.S. biofuel policy deferral and flat crush margins, while the high end assumes crush margin expansion, manufacturing efficiency progress, and stronger customer demand. The company expects Ag Services & Oilseeds segment profit to grow, Carbohydrate Solutions to be roughly flat, and Nutrition to continue its growth trajectory.

Why do GAAP and adjusted EPS differ so much for ADM?

The differences reflect specified items that management excludes from adjusted results. In Q4 2025, a $254 million non-cash gain from ADM's share of a Wilmar transaction was offset by $293 million of impairment, exit, and restructuring charges. For the full year, specified items created a net charge of about $236 million at the segment level, and adjusted EPS of $3.43 compares with GAAP EPS of $2.23.

Is ADM's dividend secure?

ADM raised its quarterly dividend by 2% to 52.0 cents per share, payable March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026. The company cites strong cash generation and a record of more than 94 consecutive years of uninterrupted dividends. Full-year dividend payments were about $987 million in 2025, which the company covered with operating cash flow, though the cash flow figure was boosted by working capital changes.

What is the key factor that could push ADM toward the high end of its 2026 guidance?

Management said the timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity will largely determine whether ADM reaches the upper end of its range. Earlier policy clarity would give the company a larger opportunity to benefit from an increasingly constructive operating environment, alongside improving global trade flows and expanding crush margins.

ADM 8-K: Earnings & Results

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed February 3, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

ADM reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that reflected a difficult operating environment, driven by weak crush margins, muted global trade flows, and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy.

Fourth-quarter GAAP EPS was $0.94^a (down 20% YoY) and adjusted EPS was $0.87 (down 24%), while total segment operating profit fell 22% to $821 million. For full-year 2025, GAAP EPS was $2.23 (down 39%), adjusted EPS was $3.43 (down 28%), and total segment operating profit declined 23% to $3.2 billion. The decline was concentrated in Ag Services & Oilseeds, where Crushing profit fell 81% for the year, while Nutrition was the only segment to grow, rising 8%.

Operating cash flow was strong at $5.5 billion^b, though much of that was driven by a $2.8 billion working capital release rather than underlying earnings (cash flow before working capital was $2.7 billion). For 2026, ADM guided to adjusted EPS of approximately $3.60 to $4.25, with the lower end assuming continued U.S. biofuel policy deferral and flat crush margins, and the upper end assuming crush margin expansion, manufacturing efficiency gains, and stronger customer demand. Management explicitly tied the position within that range to the timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity, so investors should treat policy developments as the key swing factor.

Capital expenditures are projected at $1.3 to $1.5 billion^c. The company also raised its quarterly dividend 2% to 52.0 cents, extending its streak to 53 consecutive years of dividend growth, while continuing to target $500 to $750 million in aggregate cost savings over three to five years. Quality-of-earnings considerations matter here.

Fourth-quarter GAAP results were flattered by a $254 million^d non-cash gain from ADM's share of a Wilmar transaction, which was largely offset by $293 million of impairment, exit, and restructuring charges, and the non-GAAP measures exclude these items. Full-year adjusted results exclude $236 million of net specified charges, and ADM's Decatur-related insurance proceeds declined sharply year over year. Investors should weigh the adjusted figures against the GAAP results and recognize that the company did not provide a GAAP EPS forecast, citing the unreasonable efforts exemption.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Q4 2025 GAAP EPS of $0.94 (down 20% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.87 (down 24%); total segment operating profit fell 22% to $821 million.
FY 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.23 (down 39%) and adjusted EPS of $3.43 (down 28%); total segment operating profit declined 23% to $3.2 billion.
Ag Services & Oilseeds segment profit fell 34% for the year, with Crushing down 81% on weaker crush margins; Nutrition was the only segment to grow (up 8%).
2026 adjusted EPS guidance of approximately $3.60 to $4.25, with the outcome largely dependent on the timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity.
Operating cash flow of $5.5 billion, though about $2.8 billion came from working capital changes; cash flow before working capital was $2.7 billion.
Quarterly dividend raised 2% to 52.0 cents per share, marking 53 consecutive years of dividend growth.
Q4 GAAP results included a $254 million non-cash gain tied to the Wilmar equity investment, offset by $293 million in impairment and restructuring charges; 2026 capex projected at $1.3 to $1.5 billion.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

What is driving ADM's earnings decline in 2025?
The decline was driven mainly by lower crush margins in North and South America, weaker global trade flows and lower North American soybean exports, and weaker refining margins tied to soft food demand and deferred U.S. biofuel policy clarity. Lower Decatur-related insurance proceeds also reduced results compared with 2024.
What does ADM expect for 2026 earnings?
ADM guides to 2026 adjusted EPS of roughly $3.60 to $4.25. The low end assumes continued U.S. biofuel policy deferral and flat crush margins, while the high end assumes crush margin expansion, manufacturing efficiency progress, and stronger customer demand. The company expects Ag Services & Oilseeds segment profit to grow, Carbohydrate Solutions to be roughly flat, and Nutrition to continue its growth trajectory.
Why do GAAP and adjusted EPS differ so much for ADM?
The differences reflect specified items that management excludes from adjusted results. In Q4 2025, a $254 million non-cash gain from ADM's share of a Wilmar transaction was offset by $293 million of impairment, exit, and restructuring charges. For the full year, specified items created a net charge of about $236 million at the segment level, and adjusted EPS of $3.43 compares with GAAP EPS of $2.23.
Is ADM's dividend secure?
ADM raised its quarterly dividend by 2% to 52.0 cents per share, payable March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 17, 2026. The company cites strong cash generation and a record of more than 94 consecutive years of uninterrupted dividends. Full-year dividend payments were about $987 million in 2025, which the company covered with operating cash flow, though the cash flow figure was boosted by working capital changes.
What is the key factor that could push ADM toward the high end of its 2026 guidance?
Management said the timing of U.S. biofuel policy clarity will largely determine whether ADM reaches the upper end of its range. Earlier policy clarity would give the company a larger opportunity to benefit from an increasingly constructive operating environment, alongside improving global trade flows and expanding crush margins.

04—Continue

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