Summary
Carnival Corporation (CCL) filed an 8-K on November 7, 2001, to disclose significant business impacts following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Management indicated that these events have negatively affected leisure travel, leading to substantially lower new booking levels and higher cancellations in the immediate aftermath. While booking trends have shown some strengthening over the past six weeks, this has been driven by aggressive price promotions, impacting revenue. The company projects a notable decline in net revenue yields for both the fourth quarter of fiscal 2001 and the first quarter of fiscal 2002, with occupancy and average per diem rates also down year-over-year for upcoming periods. Despite these challenges, Carnival management expressed comfort with current consensus estimates for fourth-quarter earnings per share.
Key Highlights
- 1The September 11th terrorist attacks have significantly impacted Carnival's operating results and leisure travel demand.
- 2New booking levels were significantly below expectations with higher cancellations immediately following the attacks.
- 3Aggressive price promotions have helped to stimulate booking levels over the past six weeks.
- 4Net revenue yields are expected to be down approximately 10% for Q4 fiscal 2001 due to lower prices and occupancy.
- 5First quarter fiscal 2002 occupancy levels are approximately 70%, 15 percentage points behind the prior year's comparable period.
- 6Average net per diem for Q1 fiscal 2002 bookings is down mid-single digits percentage-wise year-over-year.
- 7Net revenue yields are expected to be down roughly 15% for Q1 fiscal 2002.
- 8Bookings for Q2 and Q3 fiscal 2002 are also behind prior year levels with lower occupancy and pricing.