Is Newmont's dividend sustainable at the new $0.26 quarterly rate?

The company frames the dividend as a fixed total commitment of about $1.1 billion per year, so per-share payouts should rise as buybacks shrink the share count. The $1.04 annualized indicated rate is covered by 2025 free cash flow of $7.3 billion, but the Board approves each quarterly payment separately, and the framework is explicitly non-binding and illustrative.

Why did 2026 production guidance fall so sharply, and what drives the cost increase?

Guided attributable output of about 5.26 million ounces reflects planned mine sequencing: the Subika pit at Ahafo South concluded, Peñasquito is moving to a lower-grade phase, Cadia is transitioning to its next panel cave, and joint-venture output at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo is lower. Gold by-product AISC rises to $1,680/oz from $1,358/oz, driven by lower volumes, higher royalties at a $4,500/oz gold price, and $150 million of sustaining capital deferred from 2025.

What caused the $779 million Q4 impairment and the extra tax charges?

The impairment was mainly a decision to indefinitely defer the Yanacocha Sulfides project. The additional income taxes ($384 million in Papua New Guinea and $165 million in Ghana) were recognized because the company concluded that excess cash flow from those subsidiaries could not be remitted tax-free for the foreseeable future. Both are non-cash charges in the quarter, but the tax items reflect a lasting change in how that cash can be repatriated.

How much flexibility does Newmont have for buybacks after the dividend and capex commitments?

About $2.4 billion remains under the $6.0 billion authorization. Buybacks are deployed only after the sustaining capital, development capital, dividend, and net cash target of $1 billion (within a plus or minus $2 billion band) are met, and the company must keep at least $5 billion of cash through the cycle. The company used roughly $2.3 billion for repurchases in 2025, so the remaining authorization would be used within a little over a year at that pace, though the timing is at management's discretion.

What are the main risks to the 2026 outlook?

Key sensitivities include gold prices (a $100/oz move changes pretax revenue and costs by about $505 million), Australian dollar strength (a $0.05 move is about $100 million), and co-product metal prices. Specific risks include the Ghana sliding-scale royalty, which would add about $50/oz to total company AISC if enacted, the Boddington bushfire impact of about 60 thousand ounces in Q1, and Yanacocha leach recovery declines. The guidance is stated as high-confidence within plus or minus 5%, but it still depends on these assumptions.

NEM/NEMCL 8-K: Earnings & Results

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed February 19, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

Newmont's Q4 and full-year 2025 results (8-K Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1) were strong on cash generation and balance-sheet repair.

The company reported a record $7.3 billion^a in full-year free cash flow, including a record $2.8 billion in Q4. Full-year Adjusted Net Income was $7.6 billion, or $6.89 per diluted share, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.5 billion. Newmont reduced debt by $3.4 billion and ended the year in a net cash position of $2.1 billion, with $7.6 billion in cash and $11.6 billion in total liquidity.

Reported net income attributable to stockholders was $7.1 billion^b, which included a $779 million impairment tied to the indefinite deferral of the Yanacocha Sulfides project and $384 million plus $165 million of additional taxes on undistributed foreign earnings in Papua New Guinea and Ghana. Management also announced an enhanced capital allocation framework and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share, an indicated annual rate of $1.04. The framework targets a sustainable cash dividend of about $1.1 billion per year, with per-share growth driven by buybacks.

It also sets a $1 billion^c net cash target with a plus or minus $2 billion band, and a $5 billion minimum cash balance through the cycle. Roughly $2.4 billion remains under the $6.0 billion buyback authorization. The framework is explicitly non-binding and illustrative.

The 2026 guidance points to a year of higher spending and lower output. Attributable production is guided to about 5.26 million gold ounces, down from 5.9 million in 2025. Gold by-product AISC is guided to $1,680^d per ounce, versus $1,358 in 2025, assuming a $4,500 per ounce gold price.

Sustaining capital is about $1.95 billion, elevated by tailings work at Cadia and Boddington, and development capital is about $1.4 billion. Investors should also note the Ghana stability agreement expiry, which raises the tax burden, and the possible sliding-scale royalty, which is not in guidance.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Record full-year free cash flow of $7.3 billion (Q4: $2.8 billion), up 150% year over year, on a $3.2 billion operating cash flow gain driven by higher realized gold prices of $3,498/oz for the year (up 45%).
Net debt reduced to a net cash position of $2.1 billion after $3.4 billion of debt repayment; total liquidity of $11.6 billion, including the $4.0 billion undrawn revolver.
Full-year Adjusted EPS of $6.89 versus $3.48 in 2024; Q4 Adjusted EPS of $2.52, with Q4 reported EPS of $1.19 after the $779 million Yanacocha Sulfides impairment and additional foreign-earnings taxes.
Quarterly dividend raised to $0.26 per share (indicated $1.04 annualized), with a framework targeting about $1.1 billion per year in total dividends and per-share growth through buybacks.
2026 guidance calls for 5.26 million attributable gold ounces (down about 11% from 5.9 million in 2025) and gold by-product AISC of $1,680/oz, reflecting planned mine sequencing and higher royalties at a $4,500/oz price assumption.
Elevated 2026 capex: sustaining capital of about $1.95 billion (tailings at Cadia and Boddington) and development capital of about $1.4 billion, with Yanacocha water treatment spend of about $550 million and total reclamation spend near $850 million.
Ghana tax regime changed after the stability agreement expired on December 31, 2025: the corporate tax rate rose to 35%, an 8% withholding tax applies to repatriated cash, and a proposed sliding royalty of 5% to 12% is not included in guidance.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Newmont's dividend sustainable at the new $0.26 quarterly rate?
The company frames the dividend as a fixed total commitment of about $1.1 billion per year, so per-share payouts should rise as buybacks shrink the share count. The $1.04 annualized indicated rate is covered by 2025 free cash flow of $7.3 billion, but the Board approves each quarterly payment separately, and the framework is explicitly non-binding and illustrative.
Why did 2026 production guidance fall so sharply, and what drives the cost increase?
Guided attributable output of about 5.26 million ounces reflects planned mine sequencing: the Subika pit at Ahafo South concluded, Peñasquito is moving to a lower-grade phase, Cadia is transitioning to its next panel cave, and joint-venture output at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo is lower. Gold by-product AISC rises to $1,680/oz from $1,358/oz, driven by lower volumes, higher royalties at a $4,500/oz gold price, and $150 million of sustaining capital deferred from 2025.
What caused the $779 million Q4 impairment and the extra tax charges?
The impairment was mainly a decision to indefinitely defer the Yanacocha Sulfides project. The additional income taxes ($384 million in Papua New Guinea and $165 million in Ghana) were recognized because the company concluded that excess cash flow from those subsidiaries could not be remitted tax-free for the foreseeable future. Both are non-cash charges in the quarter, but the tax items reflect a lasting change in how that cash can be repatriated.
How much flexibility does Newmont have for buybacks after the dividend and capex commitments?
About $2.4 billion remains under the $6.0 billion authorization. Buybacks are deployed only after the sustaining capital, development capital, dividend, and net cash target of $1 billion (within a plus or minus $2 billion band) are met, and the company must keep at least $5 billion of cash through the cycle. The company used roughly $2.3 billion for repurchases in 2025, so the remaining authorization would be used within a little over a year at that pace, though the timing is at management's discretion.
What are the main risks to the 2026 outlook?
Key sensitivities include gold prices (a $100/oz move changes pretax revenue and costs by about $505 million), Australian dollar strength (a $0.05 move is about $100 million), and co-product metal prices. Specific risks include the Ghana sliding-scale royalty, which would add about $50/oz to total company AISC if enacted, the Boddington bushfire impact of about 60 thousand ounces in Q1, and Yanacocha leach recovery declines. The guidance is stated as high-confidence within plus or minus 5%, but it still depends on these assumptions.

04—Continue

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