01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed November 8, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PSEG) and Public Service Electric and Gas Company (PSE&G) filed a combined Form 8-K on November 8, 2024, furnishing under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD) the discussion materials for its investor meetings at the Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference, held November 10-12, 2024.
The materials present a business centered on PSE&G's regulated operations, which the company says represent about 90% of non-GAAP Operating Earnings over the next five years. PSEG cites a regulated capital investment program of $18Ba-$21B for 2024-2028 and a long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook of 5%-7% through 2028, with rate base growth of 6%-7.5%. The company states it needs no new equity or required asset sales to fund the five-year capital plan.
PSEG raised the midpoint and narrowed its full-year 2024 non-GAAP Operating Earnings guidance to $3.64b-$3.68 per share, from $3.60-$3.70 previously, compared with $3.48 in 2023. Nine-month 2024 GAAP net income was $1,486 million, versus $2,017 million a year earlier, and nine-month non-GAAP Operating Earnings were $2.84 per share, versus $2.94. Key 2024 developments include PSE&G's distribution base rate settlement, effective October 15, 2024, which the company says produces an overall net annual revenue increase of $505 million, and the approval of a roughly $3 billion Clean Energy Future Energy Efficiency II program.
The nuclear production tax credit (PTC) provides price support through 2032, and PSEG Power & Other is described as more stable and predictable. The filing is largely investor presentation material. It includes forward-looking statement cautions, non-GAAP reconciliations, and an indicative 2024 annual dividend of $2.40c per share, an increase of $0.12 over 2023, subject to Board approval.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- PSE&G regulated operations represent about 90% of non-GAAP Operating Earnings over the next five years, per the company's outlook.
- Regulated capital investment plan of $18B-$21B for 2024-2028 (total PSEG capital plan of $19B-$22.5B), with rate base CAGR of 6%-7.5%.
- Long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook of 5%-7% through 2028; 2024 guidance narrowed to $3.64-$3.68 per share.
- Distribution base rate settlement effective October 15, 2024, with an overall net annual revenue increase of $505 million, a 9.6% distribution ROE and 55% common equity.
- Nuclear PTC provides price stability through 2032; the fleet has 3,761 MW of carbon-free capacity and a 91.4% capacity factor for the first nine months of 2024.
- No new equity or required asset sales needed to fund the five-year capital plan through 2028; approximately $3.4B of total available liquidity at September 30, 2024.
- Indicative 2024 annual dividend of $2.40 per share, a $0.12 increase over 2023, subject to Board approval.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the source of PSEG's expected earnings growth?
According to the presentation, the primary contributor is PSE&G's rate base growth, which is driven by a $18B-$21B regulated capital program for 2024-2028. The company also cites nuclear revenues at the PTC threshold level as supporting its 5%-7% long-term non-GAAP Operating Earnings growth outlook.
Does PSEG need to issue new equity to fund its capital plan?
No. The filing states that PSEG's solid balance sheet supports its five-year capital plan with no new equity or required asset sales through 2028. It also says internally generated PSE&G cash flow, incremental PSE&G debt and PSEG Power & Other cash flow fund the plan.
What changed in 2024 guidance and recent results?
PSEG raised the midpoint and narrowed its 2024 non-GAAP Operating Earnings guidance to $3.64-$3.68 per share, from $3.60-$3.70. Nine-month 2024 non-GAAP Operating Earnings were $2.84 per share, compared with $2.94 in the prior-year period. GAAP net income for the nine months was $1,486 million, versus $2,017 million.
What is the effect of the new distribution base rates?
The distribution base rate settlement, effective October 15, 2024, provides an overall net annual revenue increase of $505 million, which the filing says is about 5% of revenues. It keeps the distribution ROE at 9.6%, sets common equity at 55% of the regulated capital structure, and establishes pension and OPEB and non-major storm cost deferral mechanisms.
What role does the nuclear fleet play in PSEG's outlook?
The company describes its nuclear fleet of 3,761 MW as a carbon-free, baseload asset with PTC price support through 2032, which it says stabilizes revenue and provides downside price protection. Management also cites potential upside from capacity uprates, fuel cycle extensions, license extensions, and possible data center power sales, which it says would be incremental to its stated growth outlook.
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