01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed November 6, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
Ameren (AEE) reported third quarter 2024 results on November 6, 2024, with GAAP diluted EPS of $1.70a versus $1.87 a year earlier, and adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted EPS of $1.87, flat year over year.
The GAAP decline reflects two charges totaling $0.21b per share after tax: a $0.13 charge for additional mitigation relief tied to an agreement in principle to settle the Rush Island New Source Review and Clean Air Act proceeding, and a $0.04 charge for customer refunds following FERC's October 2024 order on MISO's allowed base ROE. Management attributed adjusted earnings to infrastructure investment and cost discipline, partly offset by higher Ameren Parent interest expense, milder summer weather reducing Ameren Missouri retail sales, and a lower ROE at Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution. Nine-month adjusted EPS was $3.86 versus $3.78 in 2023, while GAAP EPS fell to $3.65 from $3.78.
Guidance was the key takeaway. Management lowered 2024 GAAP EPS guidance to $4.34c-$4.48 from $4.52-$4.72, while establishing 2024 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.55-$4.69, which excludes the Rush Island and FERC charges. It also introduced 2025 EPS guidance of $4.85-$5.05, whose midpoint of $4.95 implies roughly 7.1% growth over the 2024 adjusted guidance midpoint.
Management reiterated that it expects sustainable earnings and dividend growth, and that significant growth opportunities remain beyond 2025. The balance sheet shows continued capital intensity. Nine-month capital expenditures were $3.03 billiond, up from $2.57 billion, and operating cash flow was $1.95 billion, slightly below the prior year.
Long-term debt rose to $16.4 billion from $15.1 billion at year-end 2023, and short-term debt increased to $1.54 billion. Dividends paid were $535 million.
Book value per share rose to $44.33 from $42.62. Investors will likely focus on how the company funds its capital plan, the outcome of the Rush Island settlement and the FERC ROE refund, and whether the 2025 guidance is achieved.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Q3 2024 GAAP diluted EPS was $1.70 versus $1.87 in Q3 2023, a decline driven by $0.21 per share in after-tax charges.
- Q3 2024 adjusted diluted EPS was $1.87, flat year over year, with adjusted net income of $500 million versus $493 million.
- The 2024 GAAP EPS guidance was lowered to $4.34-$4.48 from $4.52-$4.72, while 2024 adjusted EPS guidance was set at $4.55-$4.69.
- Initial 2025 diluted EPS guidance of $4.85-$5.05 implies about 7.1% growth at the midpoint over the 2024 adjusted guidance midpoint.
- Rush Island New Source Review settlement charge of $34 million after tax ($0.13 per share) in Q3 and $45 million ($0.17 per share) year to date.
- Nine-month capital expenditures rose to $3.03 billion from $2.57 billion, with long-term debt increasing to $16.4 billion from $15.1 billion at year-end 2023.
- Milder summer temperatures reduced Ameren Missouri electric retail sales, and Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings fell on a lower allowed ROE under the new multi-year rate plan.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did GAAP EPS decline while adjusted EPS was flat?
Ameren recorded two after-tax charges in Q3 2024 that are excluded from adjusted results: $34 million ($0.13 per share) for additional mitigation relief tied to the Rush Island Energy Center settlement, and $10 million ($0.04 per share) in customer refunds following FERC's October 2024 order on MISO's base ROE. Together these reduced GAAP EPS to $1.70 from $1.87, while adjusted EPS held at $1.87.
Why did Ameren lower its 2024 GAAP EPS guidance?
The GAAP guidance range was reduced to $4.34-$4.48 from $4.52-$4.72 to reflect the Rush Island and FERC-related charges. Adjusted 2024 guidance of $4.55-$4.69 excludes these items, so the change is largely a non-recurring accounting effect rather than a change in operating outlook.
What does the 2025 EPS guidance mean for investors?
The 2025 diluted EPS range of $4.85-$5.05 has a midpoint of $4.95, about 7.1% above the midpoint of 2024 adjusted guidance. The estimate assumes normal temperatures and is subject to regulatory outcomes, interest rates, storms, and other risks listed in the forward-looking statements.
How is Ameren funding its growing infrastructure investment?
Nine-month capital expenditures were $3.03 billion, while operating cash flow was $1.95 billion. The gap was funded mainly by long-term debt issuances of $1.61 billion and a $1.0 billion increase in short-term debt. Long-term debt rose to $16.4 billion and short-term debt to $1.54 billion, so investors may watch leverage and financing costs, which are already pressuring earnings through higher interest expense.
04—Continue