01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed February 7, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
CVS Health's Q4 and full-year 2023 results, furnished under Item 2.02 with the press release as Exhibit 99.1, show top-line growth alongside margin pressure in its core insurance business.
Fourth-quarter revenue rose 11.9% to $93.8 billiona and full-year revenue rose 10.9% to $357.8 billion, driven by growth across all segments. Profitability was mixed: full-year GAAP diluted EPS was $6.47 (up from $3.26, which was depressed by prior-year opioid litigation and LTC write-downs), while Adjusted EPS fell to $8.74 from $9.03. Adjusted operating income declined 2.8% for the year, pressured by the Health Care Benefits segment, where the medical benefit ratio rose to 86.2% for the year and 88.5% in the fourth quarter on Medicare Advantage utilization and individual exchange growth.
The most consequential item for investors is the guidance cut. Management lowered 2024 GAAP diluted EPS guidance to at least $7.06b from at least $7.26, Adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.30 from at least $8.50, and cash flow from operations guidance to at least $12.0 billion from at least $12.5 billion. The company attributed the revision to a finalized fourth-quarter medical cost trend analysis and potential elevated medical cost trends in 2024.
Cash flow from operations for 2023 was $13.4 billionc, down from $16.2 billion in 2022, and the company spent $16.6 billion on acquisitions, including Signify Health and Oak Street Health, which pushed goodwill and intangibles higher and total long-term debt to about $61.4 billion. On the positive side, management announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend effective with the February 1, 2024 payment, returned $3.1 billion to shareholders through dividends in 2023, and introduced pricing and reimbursement models (CVS CostVantage and CVS Caremark TrueCost) slated to launch in 2025.
The company also renamed its Health Services segment CVS Healthspire. The filing itself is a routine earnings disclosure, but the revised 2024 outlook and rising medical cost pressure are the key items to weigh.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Fourth-quarter revenue rose 11.9% to $93.8 billion; full-year revenue rose 10.9% to $357.8 billion, with growth in all segments.
- 2024 guidance was cut: GAAP diluted EPS to at least $7.06 (from $7.26), Adjusted EPS to at least $8.30 (from $8.50), and operating cash flow to at least $12.0 billion (from $12.5 billion).
- Full-year Adjusted EPS fell to $8.74 from $9.03, and adjusted operating income declined 2.8% to $17.5 billion, mainly due to Health Care Benefits.
- Health Care Benefits medical benefit ratio worsened to 86.2% for the year (from 83.8%) and 88.5% in Q4 (from 85.8%), driven by Medicare Advantage utilization.
- Full-year 2023 operating cash flow was $13.4 billion, down from $16.2 billion, and acquisitions consumed $16.6 billion of cash, including Signify Health and Oak Street Health.
- Quarterly dividend increased 10%, effective with the February 1, 2024 payment; $3.1 billion was returned to shareholders via dividends in 2023.
- Announced CVS CostVantage and CVS Caremark TrueCost pharmacy reimbursement models, both planned for 2025 launch; Health Services segment renamed CVS Healthspire.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did CVS lower its 2024 earnings guidance?
After finalizing its fourth-quarter 2023 medical cost trend analysis, CVS said it sees potential for elevated medical cost trends in 2024. That led it to cut GAAP diluted EPS guidance to at least $7.06 from $7.26 and Adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.30 from $8.50.
How did the Health Care Benefits segment perform?
Revenue grew 15.6% for the year to $105.6 billion, but adjusted operating income fell 12.0% to $5.6 billion. The medical benefit ratio rose to 86.2% from 83.8%, mainly due to higher Medicare Advantage utilization compared with pandemic-depressed levels in 2022, along with growth in the individual exchange business and incremental investments.
Did CVS's GAAP earnings really improve in 2023?
Yes, on a GAAP basis. Diluted EPS rose to $6.47 from $3.26, largely because 2022 included $5.8 billion of opioid litigation charges and a $2.5 billion write-down of the Omnicare long-term care business. On an adjusted basis, EPS declined to $8.74 from $9.03, and 2023 GAAP results still included $507 million of restructuring charges and $487 million of acquisition-related costs.
Will investors receive more cash from CVS?
Yes. The quarterly dividend rose 10%, effective with the February 1, 2024 payment. Management still plans to return cash to shareholders, but the 2024 operating cash flow outlook was lowered to at least $12.0 billion from $12.5 billion.
What do the new pricing models mean for CVS?
CVS CostVantage would replace pharmacy reimbursement with a simplified formula covering drug cost, a set markup, and a pharmacy services fee, and is planned for commercial payors in 2025. CVS Caremark TrueCost would give clients pricing that reflects the net cost of drugs and shows administrative fees, with a 2025 launch planned. The filing does not quantify their financial impact.
04—Continue