01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed March 10, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
On March 10, 2025, Delta Air Lines, Inc. filed an 8-K under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD Disclosure) to furnish a presentation for the J.P.
Morgan Industrials Conference on March 11, 2025, and to revise its March quarter 2025 outlook, previously provided on January 10, 2025. Delta now expects total revenue growth of 3%a to 4% year-over-year for the March quarter, down from the prior guidance of 7% to 9%. The company attributes the revision to reduced consumer and corporate confidence from increased macro uncertainty, which is driving softness in Domestic demand.
Premium, international and loyalty revenue growth trends are described as consistent with expectations. Revised first-quarter 2025 guidance also lowers operating margin to 4% to 5% (adjusted; GAAP 3% to 4%) from 6% to 8%, and earnings per share to $0.30 to $0.50b from $0.70 to $1.00. The filing reconciles these non-GAAP measures, which exclude third-party refinery sales and mark-to-market adjustments on investments.
The GAAP diluted EPS projection is $0.40 to $0.60c, and the non-GAAP projection is $0.30 to $0.50. The accompanying presentation highlights that the March quarter is still expected to be solidly profitable, citing strength in premium, loyalty, Transatlantic and Pacific revenue, and an oil price decline of $10 per barrel from peak levels in the quarter.
It also restates a three-to-five-year framework targeting mid-teens operating margin, 10% EPS growth, $3 to $5 billiond of free cash flow, and 15%+ return on invested capital. Delta reported a 2024 after-tax ROIC of 12.9%.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Total revenue growth for the March 2025 quarter is now projected at 3% to 4% year-over-year, down from the prior 7% to 9% outlook.
- Softness in Domestic demand is attributed to reduced consumer and corporate confidence amid increased macro uncertainty.
- Adjusted operating margin guidance for the March quarter is 4% to 5%, down from 6% to 8%; GAAP operating margin is projected at 3% to 4%.
- Adjusted EPS guidance is $0.30 to $0.50, down from $0.70 to $1.00; GAAP diluted EPS is projected at $0.40 to $0.60.
- Premium, international and loyalty revenue growth trends are described as consistent with expectations.
- The presentation cites strength in premium, loyalty, Transatlantic and Pacific revenue and an oil price decline of $10 per barrel from peak levels in the quarter.
- Delta reiterated a three-to-five-year framework of mid-teens operating margin, 10% EPS growth, and $3 to $5 billion of free cash flow, and reported 2024 after-tax ROIC of 12.9%.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Delta revise its March quarter 2025 outlook?
Delta states the revision reflects reduced consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, which is driving softness in Domestic demand. Premium, international and loyalty revenue trends remain consistent with expectations.
How much did Delta lower its first-quarter 2025 guidance?
Total revenue growth guidance fell to 3% to 4% from 7% to 9%. Adjusted operating margin fell to 4% to 5% from 6% to 8%, and EPS guidance fell to $0.30 to $0.50 from $0.70 to $1.00.
What adjustments are used in Delta's non-GAAP guidance?
The non-GAAP measures exclude third-party refinery sales and related expenses, which are not part of the airline segment, and mark-to-market adjustments on equity investments. The filing shows GAAP diluted EPS of $0.40 to $0.60 for the quarter versus non-GAAP EPS of $0.30 to $0.50.
What did Delta say about the health of the March quarter?
Delta's presentation describes the March quarter as solidly profitable and points to strength in premium, loyalty, Transatlantic and Pacific revenue, along with industry-leading operational and cost execution. It also notes oil prices have declined $10 per barrel from peak levels in the quarter.
What are Delta's long-term financial targets?
The presentation outlines three-to-five-year targets of mid-teens operating margin, 10% average annual EPS growth, $3 to $5 billion of annual free cash flow, a gross leverage of 1x, and 15%+ return on invested capital. Delta reported 2024 after-tax ROIC of 12.9%.
04—Continue