01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed January 28, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
GE Vernova (GEV) reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with orders, backlog, margins and free cash flow all improving.
Q4 orders reached $22.2Ba (+65% organically), revenue was $11.0B (+4%, +2% organically), and adjusted EBITDA margin was 10.6%. For the full year, revenue rose 9% to $38.1B, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 260 bps to 8.4%, and free cash flow more than doubled to $3.7B. Backlog reached $150B, with equipment margin in backlog up six points year-over-year.
Reported net income was inflated by a $2.9Bb non-cash tax benefit from a U.S. valuation allowance release, so investors should focus on operating metrics such as adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow. Management raised its 2026 outlook to revenue of $44-45B (from $41-42B), adjusted EBITDA margin of 11-13%, and free cash flow of $5.0-5.5B (from $4.5-5.0B). The increase reflects the planned Prolec GE acquisition, which was expected to close February 2, 2026 for $5.275B to acquire the remaining 50% stake.
The 2028 outlook was also raised to $56Bc revenue (from $52B), a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, and at least $24B of cumulative free cash flow (from $22B). Power is the main growth driver, while Wind remains a drag, with 2026 organic revenue expected to decline by low double digits and approximately $400M of segment EBITDA losses. Capital returns and balance sheet strengthened during the quarter.
The board doubled the quarterly dividend to $0.50d per share and the buyback authorization was increased to $10B from $6B. S&P and Fitch upgraded the company's credit ratings to BBB and BBB+, respectively, both with positive outlooks.
Cash ended the year at $8.8B. Risks to monitor include Wind's continued losses, offshore wind contract charges, execution on the gas turbine slot reservation backlog, and the integration of Prolec GE.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Q4 2025 orders of $22.2B, up 65% organically, with growth in all segments; backlog grew $15.0B sequentially to a total of $150B.
- FY2025 revenue of $38.1B (+9%) and adjusted EBITDA of $3.2B, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 260 bps to 8.4%.
- Reported FY2025 net income of $4.9B includes a $2.9B non-cash tax benefit from a U.S. valuation allowance release, so it overstates underlying earnings.
- FY2025 free cash flow of $3.7B more than doubled year-over-year, driven by working capital benefits and higher adjusted EBITDA.
- 2026 guidance raised: revenue of $44-45B (from $41-42B), adjusted EBITDA margin of 11-13%, and free cash flow of $5.0-5.5B (from $4.5-5.0B), now including Prolec GE.
- Gas Power slot reservation agreements and equipment backlog grew from 62 to 83 GW in Q4, supporting multi-year Power growth.
- Capital returns increased: quarterly dividend doubled to $0.50 per share, buyback authorization raised to $10B from $6B, and credit ratings upgraded by S&P and Fitch.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did reported net income jump so much in 2025?
Full-year 2025 net income of $4.9B included a $2.9B non-cash tax benefit from releasing a U.S. valuation allowance. Excluding this benefit, underlying earnings were far lower, so adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are better measures of operating performance.
What is driving the raised 2026 and 2028 outlook?
The guidance increase primarily reflects the inclusion of Prolec GE, which the company expects to close on February 2, 2026 after receiving regulatory approvals. Management also cited strong Power demand, with 2026 Power organic revenue growth guided at 16-18%, and Electrification revenue guided to $13.5-14.0B, including about $3B from Prolec GE.
How is the Wind segment performing and what is expected in 2026?
Wind remains weak. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 6% to $9.1B and segment EBITDA was a loss of $0.6B, driven by offshore wind contract losses. For 2026, management expects organic revenue to decline by low double digits and segment EBITDA losses of about $400M.
What does the Prolec GE acquisition cost and what does it add?
GE Vernova agreed to acquire the remaining 50% stake in Prolec GE, its joint venture with Xignux, for $5.275B. The company expects roughly $3B of 2026 revenue from Prolec GE within Electrification and about $4B of revenue by 2028, and it plans $1B of capex from Prolec GE over 2026-2028.
How strong is the company's balance sheet and capital return program?
The balance sheet is strengthened. Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash ended 2025 at $8.8B, and S&P and Fitch upgraded the credit ratings to BBB and BBB+, respectively, with positive outlooks. In 2025 the company returned $3.6B to shareholders, and it has since doubled the quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share and raised its buyback authorization to $10B.
04—Continue