01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed February 29, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
Autodesk (ADSK) reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 results (quarter ended January 31, 2024) that were mixed: revenue grew 11% as reported (14% at constant currency) to $1.47 billiona, and GAAP diluted EPS was $1.31 versus $1.35 a year earlier, while non-GAAP diluted EPS rose to $2.09 from $1.86.
Operating margins were steady, with GAAP operating margin at 21% and non-GAAP at 36%, both flat year over year. The headline concern is the sharp drop in billings, which fell 19% to $1.71 billion, and operating cash flow, which fell to $437 millionb from $911 million. Management attributes the billings and cash flow decline largely to the company's transition to a new transaction model (shifting multi-year contracts from upfront to annual billing), so these figures are not directly comparable to prior periods.
Deferred revenue fell 7% to $4.26 billionc, but current remaining performance obligations grew 13% to $4.0 billion, which management points to as a better indicator of forward revenue visibility. For full fiscal 2024, revenue reached $5.50 billion (up 10%, or 13% at constant currency), with subscription plan revenue up 10% and recurring revenue at 98% of total. Free cash flow fell to $1.28 billion from $2.03 billion, and GAAP diluted EPS rose to $4.19 from $3.78.
Subscriptions reached 7.53 million, up about 785 thousand. Net revenue retention stayed within the 100% to 110% range on a constant currency basis. For fiscal 2025, Autodesk guided to revenue of $5.99 to $6.09 billiond (up 9% to 11%), billings of $5.81 to $5.96 billion (up 12% to 15%), non-GAAP EPS of $7.89 to $8.11, and free cash flow of $1.43 to $1.50 billion.
Management stated that underlying revenue growth should exceed 10% after adjusting for the new transaction model, acquisitions, the absence of prior true-up revenue, and currency effects. Investors should weigh the strong guidance and recurring revenue base against the near-term billings and cash flow declines, and should review the GAAP-to-non-GAAP reconciliations, since significant items such as stock-based compensation are excluded from the non-GAAP figures.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Q4 FY24 revenue rose 11% as reported (14% constant currency) to $1.47 billion, with recurring revenue at 98% of total.
- Q4 billings fell 19% to $1.71 billion, and operating cash flow dropped to $437 million from $911 million, largely reflecting the transition to a new transaction model.
- Current RPO grew 13% to $3.98 billion, while total deferred revenue declined 7% to $4.26 billion.
- Q4 GAAP diluted EPS was $1.31 (vs. $1.35 prior year); non-GAAP diluted EPS rose to $2.09 from $1.86.
- Fiscal 2024 revenue reached $5.50 billion (up 10%, 13% constant currency), and free cash flow fell to $1.28 billion from $2.03 billion.
- FY25 guidance calls for revenue of $5.99 to $6.09 billion (up 9% to 11%), billings of $5.81 to $5.96 billion (up 12% to 15%), and free cash flow of $1.43 to $1.50 billion.
- Management expects underlying FY25 revenue growth above 10% after excluding transaction model, acquisition, true-up, and FX effects.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did billings and operating cash flow decline so sharply in Q4 FY24?
Billings fell 19% to $1.71 billion and operating cash flow fell to $437 million from $911 million. The filing attributes this mainly to Autodesk's transition from upfront to annual billing for multi-year contracts under its new transaction model, which shifts cash collection timing and makes period-over-period comparisons less meaningful.
Is the deferred revenue decline a concern for future revenue?
Total deferred revenue fell 7% to $4.26 billion, but current remaining performance obligations rose 13% to $3.98 billion, and unbilled deferred revenue increased by $801 million. Current RPO represents revenue expected within the next twelve months, so it suggests solid near-term revenue visibility despite the lower reported deferred balance.
How does Autodesk's non-GAAP profitability differ from GAAP results?
Non-GAAP operating margin of 36% excludes items such as stock-based compensation (about 11% of Q4 revenue, or $160 million), amortization of intangibles, and acquisition-related costs. GAAP operating margin was 21%. Stock-based compensation is a real, recurring cost, so investors should consider the GAAP figures alongside the non-GAAP ones.
What is the fiscal 2025 outlook for Autodesk?
For FY25, Autodesk guided to revenue of $5.99 to $6.09 billion (up 9% to 11%), billings of $5.81 to $5.96 billion (up 12% to 15%), GAAP EPS of $4.41 to $4.63, non-GAAP EPS of $7.89 to $8.11, and free cash flow of $1.43 to $1.50 billion. Management expects underlying revenue growth above 10% after adjusting for the transaction model, acquisitions, and currency effects.
What drove the year-over-year change in growth across product families?
In Q4, AEC revenue grew 16% to $696 million and MFG grew 14% to $292 million, while AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT grew 4% to $377 million and M&E grew 4% to $77 million. Growth was strongest in AEC and MFG, while AutoCAD, a core franchise, showed more modest growth.
04—Continue