Why did Pfizer lower its 2025 revenue guidance?

Pfizer revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0 billion from the prior range of $61.0–$64.0 billion. The filing does not give a detailed breakdown of the cause beyond the revised range, but it is a downward revision of roughly $1 billion at the midpoint, and the company reaffirmed all other 2025 guidance components, including Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00–$3.15.

What is driving the expected decline in 2026 EPS?

The 2026 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80–$3.00 primarily reflects lower expected revenues, an anticipated higher tax rate on Adjusted income of about 15% (versus about 11% for 2025), and stable gross and operating margins compared with 2025 guidance. Higher R&D spending in 2026 is also part of the context, with R&D guided to $10.5–$11.5 billion.

How much revenue is at risk from COVID-19 products and loss of exclusivity in 2026?

Pfizer expects COVID-19 product revenue of about $5.0 billion in 2026, roughly $1.5 billion lower than 2025's expected approximately $6.5 billion. Separately, loss of exclusivity for certain products is expected to reduce revenue by about $1.5 billion year over year. Excluding these two categories, management expects operational revenue growth of about 4% at the midpoint.

Does the guidance include potential acquisitions or share buybacks?

No. Guidance does not assume completion of any business development transactions not completed as of December 16, 2025. It also assumes no share repurchases in either 2025 or 2026 and uses approximately 5.74 billion weighted-average diluted shares in 2026.

Are these figures GAAP results?

No. Pfizer provides guidance only for revenue on a GAAP basis; its EPS and expense guidance are Adjusted, non-GAAP measures that exclude amortization of intangibles, certain acquisition-related items, discontinued operations, and certain significant items. Pfizer does not reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP because it cannot predict the timing and amount of those excluded items with reasonable certainty.

PFE 8-K: Regulation FD — Dec 16, 2025

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed December 16, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

On December 16, 2025, Pfizer issued Exhibit 99.1 providing full-year 2026 guidance and revising its full-year 2025 revenue guidance, while reaffirming all other components of its 2025 financial outlook.

The company revised 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0 billion^a, down from the prior $61.0–$64.0 billion range set on November 4, 2025, and reaffirmed 2025 Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00–$3.15. Pfizer guided 2026 revenues to $59.5–$62.5 billion, with COVID-19 product revenue falling from roughly $6.5 billion to about $5.0 billion and approximately $1.5 billion of negative impact from loss of exclusivity (LOE) products. Management expects roughly 4% operational revenue growth at the midpoint in 2026 excluding COVID-19 and LOE products.

The 2026 earnings outlook is weaker than 2025. Adjusted diluted EPS is guided to $2.80^b–$3.00, versus $3.00–$3.15 for 2025, driven mainly by lower expected revenues and a higher effective tax rate on Adjusted income of about 15%, up from about 11%. Combined 2026 Adjusted SI&A and R&D spending is expected at $23.0–$25.0 billion, reflecting continued cost realignment and increased R&D investment, including the in-licensed PD-1 x VEGF bispecific antibody from 3SBio and Metsera clinical programs.

Guidance excludes business development deals not completed as of December 16, 2025, assumes about 5.74 billion diluted shares, and assumes no share repurchases in 2025 or 2026. For investors, the key takeaways are the lower 2025 revenue outlook, a 2026 year that absorbs post-LOE and COVID-related declines, and a step-up in R&D investment that pressures near-term EPS. The filing is furnished under Regulation FD rather than filed, and the forward-looking statements carry substantial risk disclosed in Pfizer's SEC filings.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

2025 revenue guidance revised down to approximately $62.0 billion from $61.0–$64.0 billion; all other 2025 guidance reaffirmed, including Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00–$3.15.
2026 revenue guidance set at $59.5–$62.5 billion, including about $1.5 billion of negative impact from COVID-19 product declines (COVID-19 revenue expected near $5.0 billion vs. ~$6.5 billion in 2025) and about $1.5 billion from loss of exclusivity.
2026 Adjusted diluted EPS guided to $2.80–$3.00, down from $3.00–$3.15 in 2025, reflecting lower revenue and a higher effective tax rate of about 15% (vs. about 11%).
Combined 2026 Adjusted SI&A and R&D expenses expected at $23.0–$25.0 billion, with SI&A at $12.5–$13.5 billion and R&D at $10.5–$11.5 billion, up from $10.0–$11.0 billion for R&D in 2025.
Management expects about 4% operational revenue growth at the 2026 midpoint, excluding COVID-19 and LOE products, signaling underlying growth from the core portfolio.
Guidance assumes no share repurchases in 2025 or 2026, approximately 5.74 billion diluted shares in 2026, and excludes business development transactions not completed as of December 16, 2025.
The information is furnished under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD) and Exhibit 99.1, so it is not deemed filed under Section 18 of the Exchange Act.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Pfizer lower its 2025 revenue guidance?
Pfizer revised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to approximately $62.0 billion from the prior range of $61.0–$64.0 billion. The filing does not give a detailed breakdown of the cause beyond the revised range, but it is a downward revision of roughly $1 billion at the midpoint, and the company reaffirmed all other 2025 guidance components, including Adjusted diluted EPS of $3.00–$3.15.
What is driving the expected decline in 2026 EPS?
The 2026 Adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80–$3.00 primarily reflects lower expected revenues, an anticipated higher tax rate on Adjusted income of about 15% (versus about 11% for 2025), and stable gross and operating margins compared with 2025 guidance. Higher R&D spending in 2026 is also part of the context, with R&D guided to $10.5–$11.5 billion.
How much revenue is at risk from COVID-19 products and loss of exclusivity in 2026?
Pfizer expects COVID-19 product revenue of about $5.0 billion in 2026, roughly $1.5 billion lower than 2025's expected approximately $6.5 billion. Separately, loss of exclusivity for certain products is expected to reduce revenue by about $1.5 billion year over year. Excluding these two categories, management expects operational revenue growth of about 4% at the midpoint.
Does the guidance include potential acquisitions or share buybacks?
No. Guidance does not assume completion of any business development transactions not completed as of December 16, 2025. It also assumes no share repurchases in either 2025 or 2026 and uses approximately 5.74 billion weighted-average diluted shares in 2026.
Are these figures GAAP results?
No. Pfizer provides guidance only for revenue on a GAAP basis; its EPS and expense guidance are Adjusted, non-GAAP measures that exclude amortization of intangibles, certain acquisition-related items, discontinued operations, and certain significant items. Pfizer does not reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP because it cannot predict the timing and amount of those excluded items with reasonable certainty.

04—Continue

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