Did Xcel Energy meet expectations in Q1 2026?

Xcel reported ongoing EPS of $0.91, up from $0.84 a year earlier, and GAAP EPS of $0.89. The company achieved this despite unseasonably warm weather, which hurt results by roughly $0.10 per share versus normal conditions, and it reaffirmed full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16. Management notes that quarterly results are seasonal and not a reliable base for annualizing.

What drove the earnings growth, and what offset it?

Higher electric revenues (+$0.23 per share), largely from recovery of electric infrastructure investments and electric sales growth, and higher AFUDC (+$0.10) drove the improvement. These were partly offset by higher interest charges (-$0.10), dilution from common equity financing (-$0.08), higher depreciation and amortization (-$0.05), and lower natural gas revenues (-$0.03).

How significant is the Smokehouse Creek wildfire liability for investors?

SPS has recorded total estimated losses and incurred legal costs of $500 million, including $63 million of remaining probable losses before insurance. Only about $90 million of its $525 million annual insurance coverage remains, and the estimate excludes potential fines, exemplary damages, and government claims. Xcel says it cannot estimate the upper end of the range, so additional losses could have a material adverse effect on financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. The Texas Attorney General also has a pending lawsuit seeking damages and civil penalties.

Is the company's financing plan adding risk to the equity story?

The company is funding a large capital program with debt and equity. Total debt rose to $37.0 billion at March 31, 2026, from $33.9 billion at year-end 2025, and the company issued $800 million of 5.75% junior subordinated notes. It also entered forward sale agreements for 13.6 million shares ($1.1 billion) in Q1 and has 40.9 million unsettled forward shares (about $3.1 billion minimum proceeds). The equity forwards provide funding visibility but dilute EPS, as seen in the $0.08 common equity financing headwind. Credit ratings are a watch point: Xcel Energy Inc.'s Moody's rating is Baa1 with a negative outlook, and PSCo carries negative outlooks at Moody's and S&P.

What is the outlook for the Google data center deal and other growth drivers?

NSP-Minnesota signed an electric service agreement to power a new Google data center in Minnesota, with Google paying all costs of its service for the agreement's duration. The company expects about $1.1 billion of benefits to NSP-Minnesota customers if approved. A request covering 1,900 MW of clean energy resources, including a Clean Energy Accelerator Charge, was filed with the MPUC in April 2026, with 1,000 MW of resources pending in existing acquisition processes. Management also highlighted the agreement as a template for future large-load projects, although no financial contribution to 2026 guidance was quantified in the release.

XEL/XELLL 8-K: Earnings & Results

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed April 30, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

Xcel Energy (XEL) reported first-quarter 2026 GAAP EPS of $0.89^a (vs. $0.84 in Q1 2025) and ongoing EPS of $0.91 (flat-to-up vs. $0.84), and reaffirmed its 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16.

Results were achieved despite unseasonably warm weather, which reduced weather-normalized-adjusted earnings by roughly $0.10^b per share year over year. Growth was driven by recovery of electric infrastructure investments and electric sales growth, partially offset by higher interest charges, depreciation, and common equity financing dilution. Revenue rose to $4.02 billion from $3.91 billion, and net income rose to $556 million from $483 million.

The quarter included two non-recurring items that net to a $0.01^c positive GAAP-to-ongoing adjustment: a $37 million Prairie Island nuclear outage refund at NSP-Minnesota (a $0.04 headwind to GAAP) and a $22 million Marshall Wildfire insurance-recovery credit at PSCo (a $0.03 benefit to GAAP). Investors should note that the Smokehouse Creek Fire liability remains a key overhang: SPS has recorded $500 million in total estimated losses and incurred costs, with only about $90 million of its $525 million insurance coverage remaining, and further losses could be material.

On the growth side, the company disclosed a Google data center agreement in Minnesota (about 1,900 MW of clean energy resources proposed, with Google paying its service costs), multiple pending rate cases in Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, and South Dakota, and a balance sheet that has expanded: total debt rose to $37.0 billion^d from $33.9 billion at year-end 2025, and the company has $3.1 billion of unsettled forward equity sales. Long-term objectives include 6% to 8%+ EPS growth off a $3.80 base.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Q1 2026 GAAP EPS was $0.89 vs. $0.84 a year ago; ongoing EPS was $0.91 vs. $0.84, with net income up 15% to $556 million.
2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 was reaffirmed despite warm weather that cut Q1 EPS by roughly $0.10 year over year.
Non-recurring items were small but offsetting: a $37M Prairie Island refund at NSP-Minnesota (-$0.04 GAAP) and a $22M Marshall Wildfire insurance credit at PSCo (+$0.03 GAAP).
Smokehouse Creek Fire exposure remains significant: $500M total estimated losses and costs recorded, with about $90M of the $525M insurance coverage remaining and further losses possible.
Interest charges rose $80M and D&A rose $40M year over year; AFUDC equity and debt increased $61M, reflecting heavy system investment and higher debt levels.
Pending regulatory catalysts include the MN electric rate case ALJ report (ROE request 10.3%), the SD electric settlement ($26M increase), the Colorado electric case (~$356M request), and the New Mexico electric case (~$168M request).
Large-load growth: a Google data center electric service agreement in Minnesota, expected to deliver about $1.1B of benefits to NSP-Minnesota customers, with Google covering its service costs.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Did Xcel Energy meet expectations in Q1 2026?
Xcel reported ongoing EPS of $0.91, up from $0.84 a year earlier, and GAAP EPS of $0.89. The company achieved this despite unseasonably warm weather, which hurt results by roughly $0.10 per share versus normal conditions, and it reaffirmed full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16. Management notes that quarterly results are seasonal and not a reliable base for annualizing.
What drove the earnings growth, and what offset it?
Higher electric revenues (+$0.23 per share), largely from recovery of electric infrastructure investments and electric sales growth, and higher AFUDC (+$0.10) drove the improvement. These were partly offset by higher interest charges (-$0.10), dilution from common equity financing (-$0.08), higher depreciation and amortization (-$0.05), and lower natural gas revenues (-$0.03).
How significant is the Smokehouse Creek wildfire liability for investors?
SPS has recorded total estimated losses and incurred legal costs of $500 million, including $63 million of remaining probable losses before insurance. Only about $90 million of its $525 million annual insurance coverage remains, and the estimate excludes potential fines, exemplary damages, and government claims. Xcel says it cannot estimate the upper end of the range, so additional losses could have a material adverse effect on financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. The Texas Attorney General also has a pending lawsuit seeking damages and civil penalties.
Is the company's financing plan adding risk to the equity story?
The company is funding a large capital program with debt and equity. Total debt rose to $37.0 billion at March 31, 2026, from $33.9 billion at year-end 2025, and the company issued $800 million of 5.75% junior subordinated notes. It also entered forward sale agreements for 13.6 million shares ($1.1 billion) in Q1 and has 40.9 million unsettled forward shares (about $3.1 billion minimum proceeds). The equity forwards provide funding visibility but dilute EPS, as seen in the $0.08 common equity financing headwind. Credit ratings are a watch point: Xcel Energy Inc.'s Moody's rating is Baa1 with a negative outlook, and PSCo carries negative outlooks at Moody's and S&P.
What is the outlook for the Google data center deal and other growth drivers?
NSP-Minnesota signed an electric service agreement to power a new Google data center in Minnesota, with Google paying all costs of its service for the agreement's duration. The company expects about $1.1 billion of benefits to NSP-Minnesota customers if approved. A request covering 1,900 MW of clean energy resources, including a Clean Energy Accelerator Charge, was filed with the MPUC in April 2026, with 1,000 MW of resources pending in existing acquisition processes. Management also highlighted the agreement as a template for future large-load projects, although no financial contribution to 2026 guidance was quantified in the release.

04—Continue

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