How much is Flutter authorizing for share buybacks, and when will it start?

The Board authorized a share buyback program of up to $5bn. It is expected to be deployed over the next three to four years and to launch following third-quarter 2024 earnings in November 2024. Timing and the number of shares repurchased depend on legal requirements, price, and economic and market conditions.

What financial targets did Flutter set for 2027?

At the midpoint of its US and Rest of World guidance, Flutter expects Group revenue of approximately $21bn, Flutter Adjusted EBITDA of over $5bn, an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%, and free cash flow of approximately $2.5bn. The filing states these forecasts assume sports results in line with expected revenue margin and current foreign exchange rates, and exclude the benefit of new US state launches between now and 2027.

How does the company describe its addressable market?

Flutter cites a 2030 regulated global gross gaming revenue TAM of $368bn, forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8%. The North American mature TAM is now estimated at approximately $70bn, including approximately $63bn for the US and $7bn for Canada. The Rest of World regulated TAM is expected to be approximately $298bn by 2030.

What are the expected effects of the Snai and NSX acquisitions?

The 2027 ROW guidance includes Snai and NSX, which are subject to customary regulatory clearances and are expected to close by Q2 2025. Including these acquisitions, ROW revenue is forecast at approximately $11.5bn in 2027 (existing ROW revenue approximately $9.5bn), with ROW Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 26% and roughly $3bn at the midpoint. The filing notes that Snai and NSX estimates may not fully align with Flutter's US GAAP policies after completion.

What leverage level will Flutter target while buying back shares?

The medium-term target leverage ratio remains 2.0-2.5x, with flexibility to be higher to support value-creating acquisitions where the company has visibility to de-lever quickly. The share repurchase program is expected to continue provided the leverage ratio is within or below the target range, or is expected to return to it in the near term.

FLUT 8-K: Regulation FD

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed September 25, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

Flutter Entertainment plc furnished a press release dated September 25, 2024, ahead of its Investor Day.

It outlines medium-term 2027 guidance and authorizes a share repurchase program of up to $5bn^a. The company cites a 2030 regulated global gross gaming revenue TAM of $368bn, with a forecast 8% CAGR, and expects Group revenue of approximately $21bn in 2027 at the midpoint of its US and Rest of World guidance. That would represent a three-year revenue CAGR of 14%, with Flutter Group Adjusted EBITDA above $5bn, an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%, and free cash flow of approximately $2.5bn in 2027.

By segment, the US outlook centers on a mature North American TAM now estimated at approximately $70bn^b, including approximately $63bn for the US, which the company says is 1.5 times its previous US estimate. For existing states, Flutter expects a 2027 revenue CAGR of 15-17% (about $9.7bn at the midpoint) and projected Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.4bn. Rest of World revenue is forecast at approximately $11.5bn in 2027 including the pending Snai and NSX acquisitions, which the filing says are expected to close by Q2 2025, and ROW Adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast at approximately 26% with roughly $3bn at the midpoint.

On capital allocation, the Board authorized buybacks of up to $5bn^c, expected to be deployed over three to four years and to launch after third-quarter 2024 earnings in November 2024. The company reiterated a medium-term leverage target of 2.0-2.5x, with flexibility to exceed it for value-creating acquisitions where it expects to de-lever quickly. The filing notes that forward-looking figures are based on assumptions and that the non-GAAP forecasts cannot be reconciled to GAAP measures without unreasonable effort.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Authorized share repurchase program of up to $5bn, expected to be deployed over the next three to four years and to launch after Q3 2024 earnings in November 2024
2027 guidance (midpoint) of approximately $21bn Group revenue, a three-year CAGR of 14%, and Flutter Adjusted EBITDA of over $5bn
Group Adjusted EBITDA margin expected to expand by 700 basis points to approximately 25% by 2027, with free cash flow of approximately $2.5bn
US mature TAM now estimated at approximately $70bn for North America (US approximately $63bn, Canada $7bn), 1.5 times the prior US market estimate
US existing-state 2027 revenue CAGR of 15-17% (approximately $9.7bn at midpoint) and projected Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.4bn, with long-term sportsbook structural GGR margin of 16%
ROW 2027 revenue forecast of approximately $11.5bn including Snai and NSX (expected to close by Q2 2025), with approximately $300m of cost efficiency savings by 2027
Medium-term leverage target of 2.0-2.5x, with flexibility to exceed it for value-creating acquisitions

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is Flutter authorizing for share buybacks, and when will it start?
The Board authorized a share buyback program of up to $5bn. It is expected to be deployed over the next three to four years and to launch following third-quarter 2024 earnings in November 2024. Timing and the number of shares repurchased depend on legal requirements, price, and economic and market conditions.
What financial targets did Flutter set for 2027?
At the midpoint of its US and Rest of World guidance, Flutter expects Group revenue of approximately $21bn, Flutter Adjusted EBITDA of over $5bn, an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%, and free cash flow of approximately $2.5bn. The filing states these forecasts assume sports results in line with expected revenue margin and current foreign exchange rates, and exclude the benefit of new US state launches between now and 2027.
How does the company describe its addressable market?
Flutter cites a 2030 regulated global gross gaming revenue TAM of $368bn, forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8%. The North American mature TAM is now estimated at approximately $70bn, including approximately $63bn for the US and $7bn for Canada. The Rest of World regulated TAM is expected to be approximately $298bn by 2030.
What are the expected effects of the Snai and NSX acquisitions?
The 2027 ROW guidance includes Snai and NSX, which are subject to customary regulatory clearances and are expected to close by Q2 2025. Including these acquisitions, ROW revenue is forecast at approximately $11.5bn in 2027 (existing ROW revenue approximately $9.5bn), with ROW Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 26% and roughly $3bn at the midpoint. The filing notes that Snai and NSX estimates may not fully align with Flutter's US GAAP policies after completion.
What leverage level will Flutter target while buying back shares?
The medium-term target leverage ratio remains 2.0-2.5x, with flexibility to be higher to support value-creating acquisitions where the company has visibility to de-lever quickly. The share repurchase program is expected to continue provided the leverage ratio is within or below the target range, or is expected to return to it in the near term.

04—Continue

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