Did JPMorgan change its financial guidance or report new results in this 8-K?

No new financial results were reported. The 8-K furnishes Investor Day slides under Regulation FD. The 2025 expense outlook (~$95B) was explicitly unchanged, and NII ex. Markets guidance of ~$90B reflects the Firm's existing outlook, with the presentation reiterating and refining prior commentary.

What is the key credit risk investors should watch?

Card net charge-offs are the most sensitive line. The central case guides to ~3.6% for 2025, and management estimates incremental 2026 losses of about $1B in a mild recession and $3.5B to $4B in moderate or deep recessions. The primary driver is the unemployment rate, with the current reserve assuming a peak UER of 5.8%.

How strong is JPMorgan's capital position according to the presentation?

The Firm reported standardized CET1 excess of $173B as of 1Q25 and stated it is well positioned to fund buybacks, dividends and growth. It also advocated for a holistic review of capital and liquidity frameworks, arguing that overlapping requirements should be simplified.

Is the 17% ROTCE target achievable across different economic scenarios?

The Firm's illustrative scenarios show ROTCE ranging from roughly 13% in a deep recession to 22% in a soft landing, with 20% to 22% in the medium term under benign conditions. Management described 17% as an outcome of disciplined capital allocation, not a binding constraint, and emphasized that maximizing shareholder value differs from maximizing ROTCE.

Why does the company emphasize deposit growth and margin?

Deposits are a core funding source, with the Firm noting that about one-third of its firmwide deposit funding comes through Payments. Management expects deposit balances to be modestly higher in 2025, and it projects a through-the-cycle CCB deposit margin of about 2.5%, supported by a lower rate environment that partly offsets margin compression.

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO 8-K: Regulation FD

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed May 19, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

JPMorgan Chase's May 19, 2025 Form 8-K furnishes slides and speaker bios from its 2025 Investor Day under Regulation FD (Item 7.01); no new financial results were reported.

The presentation reaffirmed the Firm's 17% through-the-cycle ROTCE target and its 2025 guidance: net interest income ex. Markets of ~$90B^a (firmwide NII ~$94.5B including Markets), adjusted expense of ~$95B, and Firmwide technology expense of ~$18B. Management framed the outlook as fluid, citing tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical risk and a possibly softer labor market, while stating consumers and small businesses remain financially healthy.

The credit outlook is central to the investor debate. Card net charge-off guidance is ~3.6% for 2025 in the central case, with an illustrative incremental loss range of roughly $1B^b in a mild recession to about $4B in a deep recession, and a reserve build of under $3B. The Firm also disclosed a Standardized CET1 excess of $173B at 1Q25 (reported CET1 of about $280B against roughly $57B of regulatory requirements including buffers) and continued to argue for a holistic review of capital and liquidity rules.

The bulk of the presentation focused on growth franchises, particularly Consumer & Community Banking (retail deposit share of 11.3%, card outstandings share of 17.3%, a long-term ambition of 15% deposit share, and a plan to double Wealth Management client assets to $2T^c). Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) reported a 34% pretax margin and 34% ROE in 2024, and the Commercial & Investment Bank (CIB) highlighted Payments and Markets franchise strength. The investor takeaway is a franchise with strong expense discipline and reaffirmed targets, with the main risks being macro and credit sensitivity rather than any change to reported results.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Reaffirmed 17% through-the-cycle ROTCE target, described as an outcome rather than a constraint, and reiterated 25%+ ROE through-the-cycle for CCB.
2025 guidance: ~$90B NII ex. Markets (~$94.5B firmwide including Markets), ~$95B adjusted expense (unchanged), and ~$18B firmwide technology expense.
Card net charge-off guidance of ~3.6% for 2025 central case; stress analysis shows incremental 2026 losses of roughly +$1B (mild recession) to +$4B (deep recession).
Excess CET1 of $173B (standardized basis, 1Q25), supporting buybacks (net buybacks of $7.1B in 2024 and $4.2B in 1Q25) and a dividend of $1.40 per quarter.
CCB franchise: #1 retail deposit share at 11.3%, card outstandings share at 17.3%, and a plan to double Wealth Management client investment assets to $2T.
AWM delivered 34% pretax margin and 34% ROE in 2024 with $1T of combined net client asset flows across 2023-2024.
Management characterized the outlook as fluid, citing tariffs, regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical risk, while noting consumers and small businesses remain financially healthy.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Did JPMorgan change its financial guidance or report new results in this 8-K?
No new financial results were reported. The 8-K furnishes Investor Day slides under Regulation FD. The 2025 expense outlook (~$95B) was explicitly unchanged, and NII ex. Markets guidance of ~$90B reflects the Firm's existing outlook, with the presentation reiterating and refining prior commentary.
What is the key credit risk investors should watch?
Card net charge-offs are the most sensitive line. The central case guides to ~3.6% for 2025, and management estimates incremental 2026 losses of about $1B in a mild recession and $3.5B to $4B in moderate or deep recessions. The primary driver is the unemployment rate, with the current reserve assuming a peak UER of 5.8%.
How strong is JPMorgan's capital position according to the presentation?
The Firm reported standardized CET1 excess of $173B as of 1Q25 and stated it is well positioned to fund buybacks, dividends and growth. It also advocated for a holistic review of capital and liquidity frameworks, arguing that overlapping requirements should be simplified.
Is the 17% ROTCE target achievable across different economic scenarios?
The Firm's illustrative scenarios show ROTCE ranging from roughly 13% in a deep recession to 22% in a soft landing, with 20% to 22% in the medium term under benign conditions. Management described 17% as an outcome of disciplined capital allocation, not a binding constraint, and emphasized that maximizing shareholder value differs from maximizing ROTCE.
Why does the company emphasize deposit growth and margin?
Deposits are a core funding source, with the Firm noting that about one-third of its firmwide deposit funding comes through Payments. Management expects deposit balances to be modestly higher in 2025, and it projects a through-the-cycle CCB deposit margin of about 2.5%, supported by a lower rate environment that partly offsets margin compression.

04—Continue

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