01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed June 24, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. released the results of its company-run 2026 Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test (DFAST) on June 24, 2026, covering a nine-quarter projection period (1Q26 through 1Q28) under the Federal Reserve's Supervisory Severely Adverse Scenario.
The scenario assumes a U.S. real GDP decline of 4.6%a, unemployment peaking at 10.0%, a 58% stock market decline, and a 30% fall in house prices. The Firm projects a minimum consolidated CET1 ratio of 12.4%, against a 14.6% actual level at 4Q25 and a projected 14.4% at 1Q28, well above the 4.5% regulatory minimum. Other projected minimums are 13.3% for Tier 1 risk-based capital, 15.3% for total risk-based capital, 6.2% for the Tier 1 leverage ratio, and 5.3% for the supplementary leverage ratio.
The Firm's subsidiary, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., shows a projected minimum CET1 ratio of 13.2%. On a nine-quarter cumulative basis, the Firm projects pre-provision net revenue of $135.9 billionb, a provision for credit losses of $95.6 billion, and total projected loan losses of $70.2 billion (a 5.0% portfolio loss rate). Trading and counterparty losses are $10.9 billion and other losses are $17.8 billion.
These items reduce pre-tax income to a projected $11.4 billionc over the period, or 0.2% of average assets. Projected risk-weighted assets rise from $1,982 billion at 4Q25 to $2,089 billion at 1Q28. The results are hypothetical and are not forecasts of expected earnings, losses, or capital.
The filing also notes that the Federal Reserve's own results may differ, and that the Stress Capital Buffer will remain at current levels through September 30, 2027. For investors, the key takeaway is that JPMorgan's stressed capital ratios remain comfortably above regulatory minimums under the severe scenario, indicating substantial loss-absorbing capacity. The Firm's stress results are a disclosure of model-based estimates rather than a change in capital policy, and the filing contains no new dividend, buyback, or capital action announcements.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Projected minimum CET1 ratio of 12.4% under the Supervisory Severely Adverse Scenario, versus 14.6% actual at 4Q25 and a 4.5% regulatory minimum.
- Consolidated projected minimums: Tier 1 risk-based 13.3%, total risk-based 15.3%, Tier 1 leverage 6.2%, and supplementary leverage 5.3%.
- Nine-quarter projected pre-provision net revenue of $135.9 billion, offset by $95.6 billion in credit loss provisions, $70.2 billion of which are projected loan losses (5.0% portfolio loss rate).
- Projected cumulative pre-tax net income of $11.4 billion (0.2% of average assets) after trading, counterparty, and other losses of $28.7 billion combined.
- Projected risk-weighted assets grow from $1,982 billion (4Q25) to $2,089 billion (1Q28) under the Basel III Standardized approach.
- JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. shows a projected minimum CET1 ratio of 13.2% and supplementary leverage ratio of 5.7%, both above regulatory minimums.
- The Federal Reserve announced in February 2026 that Stress Capital Buffer requirements will stay at current levels through September 30, 2027; the filing does not disclose the Firm's 2026 SCB.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the stress test show JPMorgan Chase expects to incur these losses?
No. The filing states the results are hypothetical estimates under the Federal Reserve's severely adverse scenario and do not represent the Firm's forecasts of gains, losses, PPNR, pre-tax income, capital, RWA, or capital ratios.
How much capital cushion does JPMorgan have above regulatory minimums under stress?
Under the scenario, the projected minimum CET1 ratio is 12.4%, about 790 basis points above the 4.5% regulatory minimum shown in the filing. The Firm's projected 1Q28 CET1 ratio is 14.4%.
Why are the Federal Reserve's results and JPMorgan's results different?
The Federal Reserve runs its own stress tests using its own models and methodologies. The filing notes the Firm may not be able to explain differences between its published results and the Federal Reserve's published results.
Does this filing change JPMorgan's dividend or buyback plans?
The filing does not announce any capital actions. It applies the Federal Reserve's standardized assumptions, which assume no common dividends, no repurchases, and no common or preferred stock issuances during the projection period.
What is the largest driver of projected losses?
Provision for credit losses is the largest item, at $95.6 billion over nine quarters, with projected loan losses of $70.2 billion. Pre-provision net revenue of $135.9 billion is the main offset.
04—Continue