Why did Lilly's Q4 2024 revenue fall short of guidance even though full-year revenue beat the midpoint?

The full-year 2024 figure of about $45.0 billion is $4.0 billion above the midpoint of the first-time 2024 guidance range. The Q4 shortfall of roughly $400 million below the low end of recently issued guidance reflects management's view that incretin growth accelerated less than previously anticipated and that year-end channel inventory was lower than expected. Non-incretin products performed within expectations.

What does the 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 to $61.0 billion imply for growth?

The guidance midpoint of $59.5 billion implies roughly 32% growth over expected 2024 revenue of about $45.0 billion. Management attributes the growth to Mounjaro and Zepbound uptake, new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh and Kisunla, new indications, international Mounjaro launches, and potential imlunestrant approval for metastatic breast cancer.

Are these numbers final?

No. The financial information is unaudited and preliminary, and it may change due to financial closing procedures and final adjustments. The company warned that final results may vary materially. Final Q4 2024 results and formal 2025 guidance are due on February 6, 2025.

Is tirzepatide supply constrained in the United States?

According to CEO David Ricks, U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4 2024. The company also expects to produce at least 60% more salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2024, as its manufacturing build-out continues.

Why is this filing an 8-K under Item 2.02 if the information is furnished rather than filed?

Item 2.02 covers disclosure of results of operations and financial condition. Lilly furnished the press release as Exhibit 99.1 in connection with its J.P. Morgan fireside chat. Under the filing's terms, this information is not deemed 'filed' for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act and is not incorporated into Securities Act registration statements unless expressly stated.

LLY 8-K: Earnings & Results

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed January 14, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

Eli Lilly (LLY) filed an 8-K on January 14, 2025, furnishing a press release ahead of a J.P.

Morgan Healthcare Conference fireside chat. The company pre-announced preliminary 2024 results: full-year revenue of approximately $45.0 billion^a, up 32% year over year and $4.0 billion above the midpoint of its first-time 2024 guidance. However, Q4 2024 revenue of roughly $13.5 billion came in about $400 million below the low end of recently issued guidance, which the company attributed to slower-than-anticipated incretin growth acceleration and lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end.

Note that the release frames the $400 million^b shortfall as about 3% against the October 30, 2024 guidance range, so the 2024 total is itself below that prior range. The key forward-looking item is 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, implying roughly 32% growth at the midpoint versus expected 2024 revenue. Management cited contributions from newer medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh and Kisunla, new indications, Mounjaro launches in additional markets, and potential approval of imlunestrant.

Incretin market and channel dynamics are said to be factored into the range. CEO David Ricks also stated that U.S. supply of all tirzepatide doses was available throughout Q4 and that the company expects to produce at least 60%^c more salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024. All figures are unaudited and preliminary, and the company warned that final results may vary materially.

Full Q4 2024 results and formal 2025 financial guidance are scheduled for release on February 6, 2025. Investors should treat the preliminary numbers as subject to closing adjustments and weigh the Q4 miss against the strong full-year growth and the ambitious 2025 outlook.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Preliminary FY2024 revenue of approximately $45.0 billion, up 32% year over year and $4.0 billion above the midpoint of first-time 2024 guidance.
Q4 2024 revenue of approximately $13.5 billion, up 45% year over year, but about $400 million below the low end of recently issued guidance.
Q4 Mounjaro sales of about $3.5 billion and Zepbound sales of about $1.9 billion; non-incretin revenue grew 20% year over year in Q4.
2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, implying about 32% growth at the midpoint versus expected 2024 revenue.
Q4 shortfall attributed to slower-than-expected U.S. incretin growth acceleration and lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end.
Management expects at least 60% more salable incretin doses in H1 2025 versus H1 2024 as new manufacturing capacity comes online.
Full Q4 2024 results and formal 2025 financial guidance are scheduled for February 6, 2025; all figures are unaudited and preliminary.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Lilly's Q4 2024 revenue fall short of guidance even though full-year revenue beat the midpoint?
The full-year 2024 figure of about $45.0 billion is $4.0 billion above the midpoint of the first-time 2024 guidance range. The Q4 shortfall of roughly $400 million below the low end of recently issued guidance reflects management's view that incretin growth accelerated less than previously anticipated and that year-end channel inventory was lower than expected. Non-incretin products performed within expectations.
What does the 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0 to $61.0 billion imply for growth?
The guidance midpoint of $59.5 billion implies roughly 32% growth over expected 2024 revenue of about $45.0 billion. Management attributes the growth to Mounjaro and Zepbound uptake, new medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh and Kisunla, new indications, international Mounjaro launches, and potential imlunestrant approval for metastatic breast cancer.
Are these numbers final?
No. The financial information is unaudited and preliminary, and it may change due to financial closing procedures and final adjustments. The company warned that final results may vary materially. Final Q4 2024 results and formal 2025 guidance are due on February 6, 2025.
Is tirzepatide supply constrained in the United States?
According to CEO David Ricks, U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4 2024. The company also expects to produce at least 60% more salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared with the first half of 2024, as its manufacturing build-out continues.
Why is this filing an 8-K under Item 2.02 if the information is furnished rather than filed?
Item 2.02 covers disclosure of results of operations and financial condition. Lilly furnished the press release as Exhibit 99.1 in connection with its J.P. Morgan fireside chat. Under the filing's terms, this information is not deemed 'filed' for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act and is not incorporated into Securities Act registration statements unless expressly stated.

04—Continue

← View all 8-K filings