01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed February 6, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
Eli Lilly reported Q4 2024 revenue of $13.53 billiona, up 45% year over year, driven by a 48% volume increase partially offset by a 4% decline in realized prices.
Growth was led by the new incretin products Mounjaro and Zepbound, with New Products revenue reaching $5.64 billionb in the quarter. Reported EPS rose 102% to $4.88 and non-GAAP EPS rose 114% to $5.32, both including $0.19 of acquired IPR&D charges. Gross margin expanded to 82.2% of revenue on favorable product mix.
Full-year 2024 revenue was $45.04 billionc, up 32%. For 2025, Lilly guided to revenue of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion, about 32% growth at the midpoint, and reported EPS of $22.05 to $23.55 (non-GAAP $22.50 to $24.00). The guidance assumes continued incretin demand growth, new indications, and launches in additional markets, and the company expects to produce at least 1.6 times the salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 versus the first half of 2024.
Management also expects a higher effective tax rate of about 16% and higher interest expense. Other notable items include a $15 billiond share repurchase program, a 15% increase in the quarterly dividend, a $3 billion Kenosha, Wisconsin manufacturing expansion, and several pipeline milestones such as the Zepbound sleep apnea approval, the Omvoh Crohn's approval, and positive SURMOUNT-5 results versus Wegovy. Key risks include pricing pressure, Trulicity's decline (down 25% in Q4), and the one-time $300 million Jardiance payment that boosted the quarter.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Q4 2024 revenue rose 45% to $13.53 billion, driven by a 48% volume increase, with Zepbound ($1.91 billion) and Mounjaro ($3.53 billion) leading growth.
- Reported Q4 EPS rose 102% to $4.88; non-GAAP EPS rose 114% to $5.32, both including $0.19 of acquired IPR&D charges.
- Gross margin improved to 82.2% of revenue (up 1.3 percentage points), driven by favorable product mix.
- 2025 revenue guidance of $58.0–$61.0 billion implies about 32% growth at the midpoint; reported EPS guidance is $22.05–$23.55.
- Announced a $15 billion share repurchase program and a 15% increase in the quarterly dividend, the seventh consecutive annual increase.
- Trulicity revenue fell 25% in Q4 to $1.25 billion on competitive pressure, a key headwind to monitor.
- Q4 Jardiance revenue included a one-time $300 million payment tied to a Boehringer Ingelheim collaboration amendment, which flatters the quarter.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What drove Lilly's strong Q4 2024 growth?
Volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound drove the quarter. Worldwide volume rose 48%, partially offset by a 4% decline in realized prices, mainly from Mounjaro pricing. New Products revenue reached $5.64 billion, up $3.15 billion.
How much of the Q4 result was one-time or non-recurring?
The $300 million Boehringer Ingelheim payment boosted Jardiance revenue and the quarter's results. Q4 also included $189.2 million of acquired IPR&D charges ($0.19 per share) and $344 million of special charges, mainly a Vitrakvi intangible impairment. Non-GAAP results exclude the impairment and amortization.
What is Lilly guiding for 2025?
Revenue of $58.0–$61.0 billion, reported EPS of $22.05–$23.55, and non-GAAP EPS of $22.50–$24.00. The company expects an effective tax rate of about 16% and other expense of $600–$700 million, mainly from higher interest expense.
What does the capital return program signal?
The $15 billion share repurchase program and 15% dividend increase signal management's confidence in cash generation. The dividend rose to $1.30 per share in Q4 from $1.13 a year earlier.
What are the main risks flagged in the release?
Key risks include continued pricing pressure from payers and government actions, competition (including Trulicity's decline), dependence on a few product classes, manufacturing and supply execution, and the uncertain outcome of pipeline readouts and acquisitions such as Scorpion Therapeutics.
04—Continue