What is the key change in AEP's long-term outlook?

AEP increased its long-term operating EPS growth rate to 7-9% through 2030, supported by a $72 billion five-year capital plan. Management expects roughly 9% EPS CAGR over the period, with rate base growing about 10% annually to $128 billion by 2030. Growth is expected to be in the lower half of the range in the first two years, then at or above the high end in 2028-2030.

How much of the projected load growth is secured?

AEP reports 28 GW of load additions by 2030, up 4 GW since July 2025, backed by Electric Service Agreements or Letters of Agreement. An additional 190 GW of load requests are at various stages of development but are not yet backed by agreements. Peak demand is projected to rise from 37 GW to 65 GW by 2030.

Why did GAAP EPS differ so much from operating EPS year to date?

Year-to-date GAAP EPS of $5.61 includes a $480 million after-tax benefit from the FERC NOLC Order covering 2021-2024, worth about $0.90 per share. Operating EPS of $4.78 excludes this and other items, so it better reflects ongoing performance. AEP cannot forecast the timing of such non-GAAP items, so GAAP and operating results can diverge substantially.

Is AEP on track to meet its 2025 earnings guidance?

Yes. AEP reaffirmed its 2025 operating EPS guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 and expects results in the upper half of that range. Year-to-date operating EPS of $4.78 implies a strong fourth quarter is needed to reach the range, but management is confident in the outlook.

How is AEP protecting customers from the cost of serving large loads?

AEP is implementing new tariff structures in the states it serves that require large-load customers to make financial commitments based on their load forecasts. It is also using securitization, cost management, and efficient capital allocation to limit the cost burden on other customers and preserve affordability, which is critical to regulatory support for the plan.

AEP 8-K: Earnings & Results

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed October 29, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

American Electric Power (AEP) reported third-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings of $972 million^a, or $1.82 per share, compared with $960 million, or $1.80 per share, a year earlier.

Operating (non-GAAP) earnings were $963 million^b, or $1.80 per share, down from $985 million, or $1.85 per share, in 3Q 2024. Year-to-date GAAP EPS rose to $5.61 from $4.35, but this was largely driven by a $480 million after-tax benefit from the FERC NOLC Order. Year-to-date operating EPS grew to $4.78 from $4.38, and revenue rose about 10% to $16.6 billion.

AEP reaffirmed its 2025 operating EPS guidance of $5.75 to $5.95^c and now expects results in the upper half of that range. Its 2026 operating EPS guidance is $6.15 to $6.45. The most important development is the updated five-year plan.

AEP is proposing a $72 billion^d capital plan for 2026 through 2030, supported by 28 GW of load additions backed by electric service agreements or letters of agreement, up 4 GW since July 2025. The plan is paired with a new 7-9% long-term operating earnings growth rate through 2030 and a rate base growth target of about 10% compounded annually, reaching $128 billion by 2030. Management expects operating EPS growth to be in the lower half of the range in the first two years and at or above the high end in 2028-2030.

Peak system demand is projected to rise from 37 GW today to 65 GW by 2030, and the plan includes $30 billion for transmission, more than $20 billion for generation, and $17 billion for distribution. Investors should weigh the strong growth visibility against several risks. The plan depends on large-load customers, data center demand in particular, and on regulatory mechanisms such as new large-load tariffs and securitization that protect affordability.

It also depends on the company's ability to finance a substantial capital program, and on construction execution. Quarterly operating earnings were slightly lower year over year, and Generation & Marketing and All Other results were weaker, so the story rests mainly on the forward-looking plan.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Updated five-year capital plan of $72 billion (2026-2030), the largest among peers, supported by 28 GW of contracted or agreed load additions, with an additional 190 GW of load requests in development.
New 7-9% long-term operating EPS growth rate through 2030, with about 9% EPS CAGR expected over the period and rate base growing about 10% annually to $128 billion by 2030.
3Q 2025 operating EPS of $1.80 versus $1.85 in 3Q 2024 (down $0.05), while GAAP EPS rose to $1.82 from $1.80; GAAP results were boosted by lower-quality items such as the Ohio legislation true-up.
Year-to-date 2025 GAAP EPS of $5.61 includes a $0.90 benefit from the FERC NOLC Order, while year-to-date operating EPS rose to $4.78 from $4.38 (up about 9%).
2025 operating EPS guidance of $5.75-$5.95 reaffirmed, with results now expected in the upper half of the range; 2026 operating EPS guidance set at $6.15-$6.45.
Peak system demand expected to reach 65 GW by 2030, up from 37 GW today, with the company citing the nation's largest 765-kV transmission network as a competitive advantage.
Third-quarter Generation & Marketing operating earnings fell to $48.4 million from $99.2 million, and All Other losses narrowed, a mixed segment picture.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the key change in AEP's long-term outlook?
AEP increased its long-term operating EPS growth rate to 7-9% through 2030, supported by a $72 billion five-year capital plan. Management expects roughly 9% EPS CAGR over the period, with rate base growing about 10% annually to $128 billion by 2030. Growth is expected to be in the lower half of the range in the first two years, then at or above the high end in 2028-2030.
How much of the projected load growth is secured?
AEP reports 28 GW of load additions by 2030, up 4 GW since July 2025, backed by Electric Service Agreements or Letters of Agreement. An additional 190 GW of load requests are at various stages of development but are not yet backed by agreements. Peak demand is projected to rise from 37 GW to 65 GW by 2030.
Why did GAAP EPS differ so much from operating EPS year to date?
Year-to-date GAAP EPS of $5.61 includes a $480 million after-tax benefit from the FERC NOLC Order covering 2021-2024, worth about $0.90 per share. Operating EPS of $4.78 excludes this and other items, so it better reflects ongoing performance. AEP cannot forecast the timing of such non-GAAP items, so GAAP and operating results can diverge substantially.
Is AEP on track to meet its 2025 earnings guidance?
Yes. AEP reaffirmed its 2025 operating EPS guidance range of $5.75 to $5.95 and expects results in the upper half of that range. Year-to-date operating EPS of $4.78 implies a strong fourth quarter is needed to reach the range, but management is confident in the outlook.
How is AEP protecting customers from the cost of serving large loads?
AEP is implementing new tariff structures in the states it serves that require large-load customers to make financial commitments based on their load forecasts. It is also using securitization, cost management, and efficient capital allocation to limit the cost burden on other customers and preserve affordability, which is critical to regulatory support for the plan.

04—Continue

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