01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed July 8, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
ExxonMobil's 8-K (Item 7.01, Regulation FD) furnishes Exhibit 99.1, a preview of factors expected to affect 2Q 2024 results relative to 1Q 2024.
It is not an earnings release and not an estimate of 2Q 2024 earnings. The company reported 1Q 2024 U.S. GAAP earnings of $8.2 billiona, with no Identified Items. The exhibit's market-factor table points to a mixed picture: higher liquids prices (+$0.3B to +$0.7B) are offset by lower gas prices (-$0.7B to -$0.3B) and weaker industry margins, and timing effects are also included.
Planned maintenance is expected to be a modest drag, and the table excludes operating performance, unscheduled downtime, and FX. The most material new information concerns the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition, which took effect on a change-in-control date of May 3, 2024. For the roughly two-month post-close period, management estimates Pioneer contributions of 500-550 thousand oil-equivalent barrels per day (averaged over the full quarter), GAAP earnings of $0.2B to $0.4Bb (after $0.1B to $0.2B of one-time transaction expenses), pre-tax DD&A of $0.9B to $1.1B including preliminary purchase accounting, and capex of $0.7B to $0.9B.
ExxonMobil also expects average diluted shares outstanding of about 4,250 million, reflecting shares issued for Pioneer net of buybacks. For investors, the filing is primarily a guidance-style disclosure that frames expectations ahead of the 2Q 2024 results, which are scheduled for release on August 2, 2024 at approximately 5:30 a.m.
CT. The forward-looking nature of the estimates, and the company's caveats that they may change, mean they should be read as directional rather than as firm guidance.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- 1Q 2024 baseline: U.S. GAAP earnings of $8.2B (Upstream $5.7B, Energy Products $1.4B, Chemical $0.8B, Specialty $0.8B, Corporate & Financing -$0.4B), with no Identified Items.
- Market factors: liquids prices add $0.3B to $0.7B, while gas prices reduce results by $0.7B to $0.3B and industry margins are a headwind of roughly $1.1B to $1.5B in the aggregated row.
- Planned maintenance is estimated to reduce results by $0.2B to $0.0B in Upstream and adds smaller effects in downstream segments, with seasonal timing effects also included.
- Pioneer acquisition (change-in-control May 3, 2024) is expected to contribute 500-550 koebd of production in 2Q 2024 on a full-quarter average basis, or ~46-48 MOEB attributable to ExxonMobil in the stub period.
- Pioneer 2Q 2024 estimated GAAP earnings of $0.2B to $0.4B, net of one-time post-close transaction expenses of $0.1B to $0.2B, with pre-tax DD&A of $0.9B to $1.1B (preliminary purchase accounting).
- Average diluted share count expected at roughly 4,250 million, reflecting Pioneer-related share issuance partly offset by buybacks under the announced program.
- 2Q 2024 results are scheduled for release on August 2, 2024, at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT on the company website and via EDGAR; the filing excludes operating performance, FX, and unscheduled downtime from its estimates.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this filing a 2Q 2024 earnings report?
No. It is a Regulation FD disclosure furnishing a summary of factors expected to affect 2Q 2024 results versus 1Q 2024. The company explicitly states it is not an estimate of 2Q 2024 earnings, and the full results are scheduled for August 2, 2024.
How much will the Pioneer acquisition add to ExxonMobil's 2Q 2024 results?
Management estimates Pioneer contributes $0.2B to $0.4B of GAAP earnings for May 3 to June 30, 2024. That figure includes operating results of $0.4B to $0.6B, offset by one-time post-close transaction expenses of $0.1B to $0.2B. Pioneer adds 500-550 koebd of production on a full-quarter average basis and capex of $0.7B to $0.9B.
What market conditions are expected to affect 2Q 2024 results?
Higher liquids prices are estimated to add $0.3B to $0.7B. Lower gas prices reduce results by $0.7B to $0.3B, and industry margins are a headwind in the aggregated row. Timing effects and planned maintenance (estimated at $0.2B to $0.0B in Upstream) are also included, though the table does not capture operating performance or FX.
Why does the share count matter for investors?
ExxonMobil expects about 4,250 million average shares outstanding in 2Q 2024. This reflects shares issued to Pioneer shareholders, net of repurchases under the announced buyback program, so per-share metrics will reflect both the acquisition's dilution and the company's capital return activity.
Are these estimates guaranteed?
No. The estimates are forward-looking statements subject to risks including commodity prices, refining and chemical margins, geopolitical events, regulatory actions, and integration of acquisitions. The company disclaims any obligation to update them, and it notes the table may not capture all adjustments required to fully reflect changes in industry conditions.
04—Continue