01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed April 8, 2026. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
ExxonMobil's April 8, 2026 Form 8-K, filed under Item 7.01 (Regulation FD), previews the factors affecting its first-quarter 2026 results, which will be reported on May 1, 2026.
The filing is not an earnings estimate. Management says first-quarter earnings per share are expected to exceed fourth-quarter 2025 levels, excluding unfavorable timing effects that are expected to reverse over time. Fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings were $6.5 billiona, or $7.3 billion excluding identified items.
The main drivers of the change are higher liquids prices (roughly +$1.9b to +$2.3 billion) and higher gas prices (roughly +$0.2 to +$0.6 billion), offset by large unfavorable timing effects from derivative mark-to-market and LIFO accounting. Those timing effects are estimated at approximately ($4.9) to ($3.5) billion versus fourth quarter, with about ($4.1) to ($3.3) billion in Energy Products and ($0.8) to ($0.2) billion in Upstream. The company also expects quarter-end cash outflows from margin postings of comparable value.
The filing's most significant new information concerns the Middle East conflict. Qatar and UAE assets, which accounted for about 20%c of ExxonMobil's 2025 global oil-equivalent production, began experiencing production disruptions in March. Management expects these disruptions to reduce global oil-equivalent production by about 6% in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
Attacks damaged two LNG trains in Qatar, which represented about 3% of 2025 Upstream production, and public reports indicate repairs will take a prolonged period. Middle East disruptions and reduced crude availability at Asia Pacific operations are also expected to reduce global Energy Products throughput by about 2%. Separately, roughly ($0.6d) to ($0.8) billion of first-quarter earnings impact from a settled financial hedge that was not offset by a physical shipment is classified within identified items.
For investors, the filing presents a mixed picture: underlying commodity prices and strong operating momentum are offset by timing-related accounting headwinds and direct supply disruptions in the Middle East. The company also highlighted positive developments, including Permian production targeted at 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2026 and first LNG production from Golden Pass LNG Train 1 on March 30, 2026. The forward-looking statements and non-GAAP disclaimers should be read in full, as the estimates are preliminary and subject to finalization.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- Management expects 1Q 2026 EPS to be higher than 4Q 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects that are expected to reverse over time. The 4Q 2025 baseline was $6.5 billion GAAP earnings and $7.3 billion excluding identified items.
- Estimated timing effects worsen by approximately ($4.9) to ($3.5) billion versus 4Q 2025, driven by the sharp rise in commodity prices between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026. The midpoint is estimated at about $0.93 per share on 4.2 billion average shares.
- Higher liquids prices are estimated to add roughly $1.9 to $2.3 billion and higher gas prices roughly $0.2 to $0.6 billion to 1Q 2026 earnings, before timing effects, at prior-period volumes.
- Middle East production disruptions in Qatar and the UAE (about 20% of 2025 global oil-equivalent production) are expected to lower global oil-equivalent production by about 6% in 1Q 2026 versus 4Q 2025. Two Qatari LNG trains, about 3% of 2025 Upstream production, were damaged, with prolonged repairs expected.
- Energy Products throughput is expected to fall about 2% in 1Q 2026 versus 4Q 2025 due to Middle East disruptions and reduced crude availability at Asia Pacific operations. Middle East assets represent about 5% of global refining and chemical capacity.
- A loss of roughly ($0.6) to ($0.8) billion from a settled financial hedge, where the physical shipment was prevented by Middle East supply disruptions, is classified as an identified item, which excludes it from the adjusted earnings measure.
- Quarter-end cash balances will reflect outflows from cash margin postings tied to the timing effects. Golden Pass LNG Train 1 achieved first production on March 30, 2026, and Permian production is targeted at 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2026. Full 1Q 2026 results are scheduled for release on May 1, 2026.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Will ExxonMobil's first-quarter 2026 earnings be higher than the fourth quarter of 2025?
The company expects first-quarter 2026 earnings per share to be higher than fourth-quarter 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects that are expected to reverse over time. Fourth-quarter 2025 GAAP earnings were $6.5 billion, or $7.3 billion excluding identified items. This is a qualitative expectation, not a specific earnings estimate, and the filing notes that the figures are subject to finalization.
How much will the Middle East conflict reduce ExxonMobil's production and refining output?
Management expects Middle East disruptions to lower global oil-equivalent production by about 6% in the first quarter compared with fourth-quarter 2025, with Qatar and UAE assets accounting for about 20% of 2025 global production. Global Energy Products throughput is expected to decline about 2%. Two Qatari LNG trains, about 3% of 2025 Upstream production, were damaged, and repairs are expected to take a prolonged period. The company has not yet provided a timeline for their return to normal operations.
What are timing effects, and why do they matter for first-quarter results?
Timing effects arise because derivatives used to hedge physical shipments are marked to market at quarter-end and recognized in earnings, while the physical inventory is valued under LIFO and recognized only when the transaction completes. In periods of rising prices, these effects are typically negative. Because prices rose significantly between December 31, 2025 and March 31, 2026, the quarter-over-quarter change in timing effects is estimated at about ($4.9) to ($3.5) billion. These effects are expected to reverse over subsequent quarters, so they reduce reported first-quarter earnings without necessarily reflecting underlying operating weakness.
Does the filing provide an actual first-quarter 2026 earnings figure?
No. The filing is a preview of the factors expected to affect first-quarter 2026 results relative to fourth-quarter 2025. It is explicitly not an estimate of first-quarter 2026 earnings and does not reflect operating performance, unscheduled downtime, foreign exchange, or other factors. ExxonMobil plans to publish its full first-quarter 2026 results on May 1, 2026, at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT on its website and in an 8-K filing.
What operational steps is ExxonMobil taking to offset the disruptions?
The company says it is leveraging its integrated global system by increasing Permian production to 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2026, optimizing logistics and crude and product flows, and maximizing refinery throughput where safe and feasible. It also reported that Golden Pass LNG, a joint venture with QatarEnergy, achieved first LNG production from Train 1 on March 30, 2026. The filing does not quantify the financial benefit of these actions.
04—Continue