01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed July 7, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
ExxonMobil's July 7, 2025 Form 8-K (Item 7.01, Regulation FD) furnishes Exhibit 99.1, a preview of the factors management expects to move 2Q 2025 results relative to 1Q 2025.
It is not an earnings estimate. The starting point is 1Q 2025 U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.7 billiona, with no Identified Items, so the non-GAAP and GAAP figures are the same. The segment breakdown was Upstream $6.8B, Energy Products $0.8B, Chemical Products $0.3B, Specialty Products $0.7B, and Corporate & Financing $(0.8)B.
The main headwind disclosed is commodity prices. Management estimates the change in liquids prices (crude, condensate, and NGL realizations at prior-period volumes) at a $0.8B to $1.2Bb negative impact, and the change in gas prices (including LNG and settled gas trading) at a $0.3B to $0.7B negative impact. Market-driven industry margins are expected to be a modest positive, and timing effects from unsettled derivatives and LIFO-related differences are expected to be mixed.
Planned scheduled maintenance is expected to be roughly neutral to slightly negative, depending on segment. For investors, the filing signals that 2Q 2025 earnings are likely to be softer than 1Q 2025, primarily because of lower oil and gas realizations, partly offset by margin and timing effects. The company explicitly excludes operating performance, unscheduled downtime, foreign exchange, and cost seasonality from these estimates, and it notes that the list may not be complete.
Full 2Q 2025 results are scheduled for release on August 1, 2025, at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT, on the company's website and via Form 8-K.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- 1Q 2025 baseline: U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.7B, with no Identified Items, so GAAP and non-GAAP figures match (Upstream $6.8B, Energy Products $0.8B, Chemical $0.3B, Specialty $0.7B, Corp & Fin $(0.8)B).
- Liquids price headwind of roughly $0.8B to $1.2B, reflecting lower crude, condensate, and NGL realizations relative to 1Q 2025 at prior-period volumes.
- Natural gas price headwind of roughly $0.3B to $0.7B, including LNG realizations and settled gas trading.
- Industry margins are expected to be a modest tailwind, with estimated effects of about $0.1B to $0.5B in the segment disclosures provided.
- Timing effects from unsettled derivatives and LIFO inventory accounting are expected to be mixed, with a range of roughly $(0.3)B to $0.3B.
- Scheduled maintenance is expected to be roughly neutral to slightly negative for 2Q 2025, with segment ranges generally within $(0.2)B to $0.2B.
- Full 2Q 2025 results are scheduled for release on August 1, 2025, at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT, with a backup plan to post on the website if the EDGAR filing is delayed.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this filing provide an estimate of ExxonMobil's 2Q 2025 earnings?
No. The filing explicitly states it is not an estimate of 2Q 2025 earnings. It only lists market and planned factors that management expects to change results relative to 1Q 2025. It excludes operating performance, unscheduled downtime, foreign exchange, cost seasonality, and other items, so it cannot be used to derive a full-quarter earnings figure.
What is the main driver of the expected decline in 2Q 2025 results?
Lower commodity prices are the primary identified headwind. Liquids price changes are estimated at a $0.8B to $1.2B negative effect, and gas price changes at a $0.3B to $0.7B negative effect, both measured at prior-period volumes. These are partly offset by expected positive contributions from industry margins.
Were there any non-recurring items in 1Q 2025 that affect comparability?
No. The filing shows no 1Q 2025 Identified Items, meaning there were no individually significant non-operational events of at least about $250 million at the corporate level. As a result, 1Q 2025 U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.7B equal earnings excluding Identified Items.
When and how will ExxonMobil report its 2Q 2025 results?
The company intends to release 2Q 2025 financial results at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT on Friday, August 1, 2025, both by posting on its website (www.exxonmobil.com) and by filing a Form 8-K on EDGAR. If the EDGAR filing fails, it will be furnished as soon as possible afterward, and investors should check the website at the scheduled time.
04—Continue