Did ExxonMobil's Q3 2024 results beat or miss expectations?

The filing does not include analyst consensus estimates, so it cannot be determined from this document whether the results beat or missed expectations. The release describes the quarter as one of the company's strongest third quarters in a decade, and it cites earnings of $8.6 billion, or $1.92 per share.

Why did year-to-date earnings decline compared with 2023?

YTD earnings fell $2.3 billion to $26.1 billion, mainly because Energy Products earnings dropped from $8.9 billion to $3.6 billion as industry refining margins declined from historically high levels. Natural gas prices also weakened. Growth in Upstream volumes, high-value product sales, and structural cost savings partly offset these declines.

How secure is the dividend and what are the shareholder return plans?

The quarterly dividend was raised 4% to $0.99 per share, and the company has increased its annual dividend for 42 consecutive years. Year-to-date dividends totaled $12.3 billion, and the company plans to repurchase more than $19 billion of shares in 2024. With free cash flow of $26.4 billion year-to-date, those distributions were covered by operating cash flow, though the filing does not provide a forward-looking coverage analysis.

How did the Pioneer acquisition affect results?

Pioneer, acquired in an all-stock transaction on May 3, 2024, contributed to Upstream growth. Permian production rose and helped offset lower base volumes from divestments and Guyana maintenance in Q3. The acquisition added about 545 million shares to the diluted share count, which raised the weighted average to 4.46 billion shares in Q3 from 4.03 billion a year earlier.

What are the main risks and uncertainties in the low-carbon initiatives?

The Baytown hydrogen project's final investment decision is expected in 2025 with startup in 2029, and it depends on federal regulations consistent with the Inflation Reduction Act. The CCS volumes depend on additional investment and government permitting. The filing's forward-looking statements caution that these projects may not proceed as planned, so investors should not treat them as committed earnings sources.

XOM 8-K: Earnings & Results & Regulation FD

01—Abstract

Summary

Summary of the 8-K filed November 1, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.

ExxonMobil reported third-quarter 2024 earnings of $8.6 billion^a, or $1.92 per share assuming dilution, down from $8.9 billion... more precisely, down $630 million from $9.24 billion in 2Q24 and down from $9.07 billion in 3Q23.

No identified items affected the quarter. Cash flow from operations was $17.6 billion^b and free cash flow was $11.3 billion, with capital and exploration expenditures of $7.2 billion. Year-to-date earnings were $26.1 billion versus $28.4 billion a year earlier, mainly because industry refining margins and natural gas prices fell from historically high 2023 levels.

Growth from Guyana, the Permian (including Pioneer, acquired May 2024) and higher high-value product sales partly offset those declines. Shareholder returns remained a central theme. The company returned $9.8 billion^c to shareholders in the quarter and $26.1 billion year-to-date, including $12.3 billion of dividends and $13.8 billion of buybacks, and plans to repurchase more than $19 billion of shares in 2024.

The fourth-quarter dividend was raised 4% to $0.99^d per share, marking 42 consecutive years of annual increases. Balance sheet metrics are strong, with a net-debt-to-capital ratio of 5% and $27.0 billion of cash. Management also cited $11.3 billion of cumulative structural cost savings versus 2019, with a target of $15 billion by end-2027.

On the strategic side, ExxonMobil highlighted progress in low-carbon businesses, including ADNOC's 35% stake in the Baytown hydrogen project, a fifth CCS agreement that brings contracted CO2 storage to 6.7 million metric tons per year, and new Proxima resin and carbon materials opportunities. These projects remain contingent on policy support, permitting, and final investment decisions, and their timelines carry execution risk.

02—Key points

Key Highlights

Q3 2024 earnings of $8.6 billion ($1.92/share), down $630 million from Q2 2024 and $460 million from Q3 2023, with no identified items.
YTD earnings of $26.1 billion versus $28.4 billion a year earlier, reflecting weaker refining margins and lower natural gas prices from 2023 highs.
Q3 cash flow from operations of $17.6 billion and free cash flow of $11.3 billion; YTD free cash flow of $26.4 billion.
Shareholder returns of $9.8 billion in Q3 and $26.1 billion YTD, with more than $19 billion of buybacks planned for 2024.
Quarterly dividend raised 4% to $0.99 per share, the 42nd consecutive annual increase; payable December 10, 2024.
Upstream YTD earnings rose to $18.9 billion, up $1.7 billion, driven by Guyana, Permian and Pioneer volumes; production hit 4.6 million boe/d in Q3.
Balance sheet remains strong, with a net-debt-to-capital ratio of 5% and $27.0 billion of cash, and $11.3 billion of cumulative structural cost savings.

03—Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

Did ExxonMobil's Q3 2024 results beat or miss expectations?
The filing does not include analyst consensus estimates, so it cannot be determined from this document whether the results beat or missed expectations. The release describes the quarter as one of the company's strongest third quarters in a decade, and it cites earnings of $8.6 billion, or $1.92 per share.
Why did year-to-date earnings decline compared with 2023?
YTD earnings fell $2.3 billion to $26.1 billion, mainly because Energy Products earnings dropped from $8.9 billion to $3.6 billion as industry refining margins declined from historically high levels. Natural gas prices also weakened. Growth in Upstream volumes, high-value product sales, and structural cost savings partly offset these declines.
How secure is the dividend and what are the shareholder return plans?
The quarterly dividend was raised 4% to $0.99 per share, and the company has increased its annual dividend for 42 consecutive years. Year-to-date dividends totaled $12.3 billion, and the company plans to repurchase more than $19 billion of shares in 2024. With free cash flow of $26.4 billion year-to-date, those distributions were covered by operating cash flow, though the filing does not provide a forward-looking coverage analysis.
How did the Pioneer acquisition affect results?
Pioneer, acquired in an all-stock transaction on May 3, 2024, contributed to Upstream growth. Permian production rose and helped offset lower base volumes from divestments and Guyana maintenance in Q3. The acquisition added about 545 million shares to the diluted share count, which raised the weighted average to 4.46 billion shares in Q3 from 4.03 billion a year earlier.
What are the main risks and uncertainties in the low-carbon initiatives?
The Baytown hydrogen project's final investment decision is expected in 2025 with startup in 2029, and it depends on federal regulations consistent with the Inflation Reduction Act. The CCS volumes depend on additional investment and government permitting. The filing's forward-looking statements caution that these projects may not proceed as planned, so investors should not treat them as committed earnings sources.

04—Continue

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