01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed April 3, 2025. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
ExxonMobil's Exhibit 99.1 is a pre-earnings preview of factors expected to affect 1Q 2025 results relative to 4Q 2024.
It starts from a 4Q24 U.S. GAAP earnings base of $7.6 billiona, or $7.4 billion excluding identified items. The Upstream segment accounts for most of that base ($6.5 billion GAAP, $6.3 billion excluding items), while Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products contribute much less, and Corporate & Financing is a $0.2 billion drag. The company explicitly says the figures are not an earnings estimate and are not comprehensive, so investors should not read them as guidance.
The estimated market effects are mixed but lean positive, driven mainly by Upstream. Upstream industry margins are estimated at +$0.3b to +$0.7 billion, and liquids and gas price changes at $0.0 to +$0.4 billion each. Timing effects tied to derivatives and LIFO accounting are estimated at +$0.1 to +$0.5 billion.
Chemical industry margins are estimated at a negative $0.1 to $0.3 billionc. Planned and seasonal factors partly offset these gains: fewer days in 1Q25 versus 4Q24 reduce earnings by roughly $0.3 to $0.1 billion in Upstream and $0.2 to $0.0 billion in Energy Products, and scheduled maintenance adds cost in several segments. The filing also gives the timing for the full 1Q 2025 results, which are expected around 5:30 a.m.
CT on Friday, May 2, 2025, on the company website and via Form 8-K. The disclosure is Regulation FD compliance and sets out the framework management uses for Identified Items, which are typically items of at least $250 milliond at the corporate level. Management's own caveats, including unscheduled downtime, foreign exchange, and operating performance, mean the actual outcome could differ materially from these ranges.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- 4Q24 baseline: U.S. GAAP earnings of $7.6 billion, or $7.4 billion excluding Identified Items, with Upstream contributing $6.5 billion GAAP and $6.3 billion excluding items.
- Upstream industry margins are estimated to add $0.3 to $0.7 billion to 1Q25 results, the largest single positive market factor disclosed.
- Liquids and natural gas price changes are each estimated at $0.0 to $0.4 billion, with a further $0.1 to $0.5 billion from timing effects tied to derivatives and LIFO accounting.
- Chemical Products margins are estimated at a $0.1 to $0.3 billion headwind, and Specialty Products is roughly flat to modestly negative.
- Fewer days in 1Q25 versus 4Q24 are estimated to reduce earnings by about $0.3 to $0.1 billion in Upstream and $0.2 to $0.0 billion in Energy Products.
- Scheduled maintenance and the absence of year-end inventory effects are additional planned headwinds, concentrated in Energy Products.
- The company will release full 1Q 2025 results around 5:30 a.m. CT on May 2, 2025, via its website and Form 8-K.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Does this filing provide official 1Q 2025 earnings guidance?
No. The filing states that it is not an estimate of 1Q 2025 earnings and is not comprehensive. It covers only significant planned activities, market dynamics, and seasonal patterns. It excludes operating performance, unscheduled downtime, foreign exchange, and ongoing improvement initiatives, so the actual result could differ materially.
What are the main drivers of the expected change in 1Q 2025 earnings?
The largest favorable drivers are Upstream industry margins ($0.3 to $0.7 billion) and timing effects ($0.1 to $0.5 billion). Liquids and gas prices each add $0.0 to $0.4 billion. Offsetting these are fewer days in the quarter, scheduled maintenance, and a weaker Chemical Products margin environment.
What are Identified Items, and why do they matter for comparing results?
Identified Items are individually significant non-operational events, typically with a corporate earnings impact of at least $250 million in a quarter. In 4Q24 they included impairments of about $0.6 billion, asset sale gains, and tax items. Excluding them (the non-GAAP measure) gives a cleaner view of underlying business performance across periods, but it is not a substitute for U.S. GAAP net income.
When and how will ExxonMobil report its 1Q 2025 results?
The company intends to publish its 1Q 2025 results on its website and file them on Form 8-K with the SEC at approximately 5:30 a.m. CT on Friday, May 2, 2025. If the EDGAR filing is delayed or fails, it will post the results on its website at the scheduled time and file on EDGAR as soon as possible afterward.
04—Continue