01—Abstract
Summary
Summary of the 8-K filed June 11, 2024. Cited figures are marked; the original filing is the authoritative source.
M&T Bank Corporation posted a 2Q 2024 investor update on its website on June 11, 2024, for use in investor and analyst conversations.
The presentation reports quarter-to-date trends through May 2024, including average deposits of $163.9 billiona, average loans of $134.5 billion, and a taxable-equivalent net interest margin guided to the mid-3.50s. Management expects GAAP expense of $1.290 billion to $1.310 billion for the quarter and says share repurchases were paused during 2Q24. The company expects its CET1 ratio to build from 11.08% to over 11.35%.
For full-year 2024, the outlook calls for taxable-equivalent net interest income of $6.85 billionb, fee income of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, GAAP expense of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion, and net charge-offs of about 40 basis points of average loans. Credit metrics are presented as elevated but manageable. Criticized commercial loans rose $364 million quarter over quarter to $12.9 billion, while permanent office commercial real estate is under 3.5% of total loans and its maturities are described as spread out.
Liquidity sources are stated at about 135%c of adjusted uninsured deposits as of March 31, 2024. The presentation also emphasizes long-term profitability and capital strength. It cites a net operating return on tangible common equity of 17.60% for 2023 and 12.67% for 1Q24, a 1Q24 CET1 ratio of 11.08%, and a top-quartile CET1 position among peers.
02—Key points
Key Highlights
- 2Q24 outlook: taxable-equivalent net interest income of $1.700 billion (+/-) with net interest margin in the mid-3.50s; GAAP expense of $1.290 billion to $1.310 billion, reflecting seasonally lower compensation.
- Full-year 2024 outlook: taxable-equivalent net interest income of $6.85 billion, fee income of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, and GAAP expense of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion, excluding incremental FDIC special assessments.
- Share repurchases are paused in 2Q24, with a decision to be evaluated after second-quarter results; the CET1 ratio is expected to build from 11.08% to over 11.35%.
- Credit: full-year net charge-offs expected at about 40 basis points of average loans; the 1Q24 net charge-off ratio was 0.42% and the allowance-to-loans ratio was 1.62%.
- Criticized C&I and CRE loans increased $364 million quarter over quarter to $12.9 billion, driven by C&I, while permanent office CRE is less than 3.5% of total loans and about 85% of that portfolio matures in 2025 or later.
- Liquidity: liquidity sources represent ~135% of adjusted uninsured deposits as of March 31, 2024; 64% of deposits are insured or collateralized.
- Rate sensitivity: the presentation reports Mar. 2024 NII sensitivity of negative $50 million for a +200bps scenario, and states M&T has moved toward approaching neutral asset sensitivity.
03—Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the company's full-year 2024 earnings outlook?
The presentation guides to taxable-equivalent net interest income of $6.85 billion (+/-), fee income of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, and GAAP expense of $5.25 billion to $5.30 billion, excluding incremental FDIC special assessments. It also assumes a taxable-equivalent tax rate of 24.0% to 24.5%, excluding a discrete tax benefit in 1Q24.
Is M&T buying back shares?
Share repurchases were paused during 2Q24, and management said they would be evaluated after second-quarter results. The presentation links the capital build to an expected CET1 ratio rise from 11.08% to over 11.35%.
How is the company's credit quality trending?
Net charge-offs are expected to be lumpy quarter to quarter, with full-year expectations of about 40 basis points. Criticized commercial loans rose $364 million to $12.9 billion in 1Q24, with 97% of criticized accrual loans current. The allowance for credit losses was 1.62% of loans at March 31, 2024.
How exposed is the company to commercial real estate and office loans?
Commercial real estate is 24% of total loans, down from 31% in 2019. Permanent office IRE is less than 3.5% of total loans, with New York City at about 0.5% of total loans. The presentation states that about 85% of the permanent office portfolio matures in 2025 or later and that the weighted average LTV across permanent IRE is 56%.
04—Continue